165 Tiki Ln · Pittsburg, CA 94565

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 507 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition $90/sqft · 50% above area Est $87k · 50% over ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ Park! MOTIVATED SELLER - PRICE ADJUSTED!! We made a promise to update this home—and we’re delivering! Located in the desirable 55+ Delta Hawaii community, this rare 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an exceptionally spacious living area with a total of approximately 1440sqft. and all with new luxury vinyl plank flooring! The beautifully renovated kitchen features brand-new cabinets with stylish hardware, recessed lighting and may include new stainless steel appliances. Both bathrooms include updated cabinets, new light fixtures and accessories! There are so many upgrades throughout the home that we can’t list them all here! Some of the pictures are virtual staging. Buyer MAY be able to include appliances if the offer warrants it. Washer & Dryer are included without warranty. Please note: This property is a foreclosure.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 3.4% in Pittsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#687 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Pittsburg Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,069 of 1,400 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 507 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 507 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.71%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,700
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 49.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Kona Crk	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$70,000	$49	95
141 Maui Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$84,000	$58	90
215 Maui Dr #215	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	4mo	$85,500	$59	86
16 Surf Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$54,900	$38	84
237 Aloha Way	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+2%)	5mo	$175,000	$120	82
232 Queens Way	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-3%)	4mo	$87,500	$63	81
61 Pali Way	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-3%)	3mo	$50,000	$36	80
134 Banyon Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$133,000	$99	79
77 Hilo Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+9%)	2mo	$270,000	$172	78
224 Queens Way #224	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$85,900	$64	74
46 Palm Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,277 (-11%)	6mo	$230,000	$180	68
202 Queens Way	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$70,000	$56	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $69,278
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $161,636
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94565

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,044 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $1,507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,596	-5% $1,552	+0% $1,507	+5% $1,462	+10% $1,417
Rent	-10% $1,266	-5% $1,386	+0% $1,507	+5% $1,627	+10% $1,747
Rate	-1.0pp $1,572	-0.5pp $1,540	base $1,507	+0.5pp $1,473	+1.0pp $1,439

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Meadowbrook Ave Pittsburg, CA	2.0	2.0	1122	$2,600	$2.32	44d	1	0.22mi
2221 Lynbrook Dr Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1365	$3,195	$2.34	44d	1	0.29mi
948 Golden Leaf Way Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1386	$3,400	$2.45	44d	1	0.36mi
1 Addison Ct Pittsburg, CA	4.0	2.5	1805	$3,295	$1.83	25d	1	0.37mi
500 Loveridge Cir Pittsburg, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	825	$3,025	$3.67	0d	10	0.46mi
110 Dias Cir Pittsburg, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	819	$2,895	$3.53	0d	17	0.46mi
3809 Lassen Dr Pittsburg, CA	3.0	1.5	1650	$2,995	$1.82	4d	1	0.59mi
240 Benjamin Ave Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1379	$3,139	$2.28	3d	1	0.66mi
4225 McFaul Dr Pittsburg, CA	4.0	2.0	1500	$4,100	$2.73	25d	1	0.73mi
3724 Gladstone Dr Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1356	$3,195	$2.36	0d	1	0.74mi
60 Xena Ct Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.5	1805	$3,200	$1.77	44d	1	0.78mi
17 Lorraine Ave Pittsburg, CA	3.0	1.5	1180	$2,700	$2.29	19d	1	0.80mi
2205 E Leland Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,294	$2.71	0d	18	1.03mi
30 Castlewood Dr Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	793	$2,640	$3.33	0d	3	1.04mi
1353 Pine St Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,750	$2.01	6d	1	1.04mi
1341 Maple St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	1299	$2,550	$1.96	23d	1	1.04mi
1346 Redwood St Pittsburg, CA	3.0	1.5	1066	$2,915	$2.73	17d	1	1.08mi
706 E 12th St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	939	$2,490	$2.65	25d	1	1.15mi
706 E 12th St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	935	$2,490	$2.66	23d	1	1.15mi
99 Liberty Ct Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.5	1802	$3,600	$2.00	44d	1	1.15mi
1000 Pheasant Dr Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	879	$2,795	$3.18	25d	29	1.19mi
241 W Buchanan Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$2,660	$3.17	0d	12	1.23mi
34 Kingswood Dr Pittsburg, CA	4.0	2.0	1755	$3,900	$2.22	44d	1	1.38mi
461 E 9th St Unit 461 Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,100	$2.40	0d	1	1.42mi
322 E 8th St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	884	$2,495	$2.82	19d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 507 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 504 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 503 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 502 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 501 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 499 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 498 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 495 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 494 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 493 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 490 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 489 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 488 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 487 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 486 DOM
16. 2026-02-20
    price $129,900 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    55+ Park! MOTIVATED SELLER - PRICE ADJUSTED!! We made a promise to update this home—and we’re delivering! Located in the desirable 55+ Delta Hawaii community, this rare 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an exceptionally spacious living area with a total of approximately 1440sqft. and all with new luxury vinyl plank flooring! The beautifully renovated kitchen features brand-new cabinets with stylish hardware, recessed lighting and may include new stainless steel appliances. Both bathrooms include updated cabinets, new light fixtures and accessories! There are so many upgrades throughout the home that we can’t list them all here! Some of the pictures are virtual staging. Buyer MAY be able to include appliances if the offer warrants it. Washer & Dryer are included without warranty. Please note: This property is a foreclosure.

17. 2025-12-11
    price $134,900 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    55+ Park! MOTIVATED SELLER - PRICE ADJUSTED!! We made a promise to update this home—and we’re delivering! Located in the desirable 55+ Delta Hawaii community, this rare 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an exceptionally spacious living area with a total of approximately 1440sqft. and all with new luxury vinyl plank flooring! The beautifully renovated kitchen features brand-new cabinets with stylish hardware, recessed lighting and may include new stainless steel appliances. Both bathrooms include updated cabinets, new light fixtures and accessories! There are so many upgrades throughout the home that we can’t list them all here! Some of the pictures are virtual staging. Buyer MAY be able to include appliances if the offer warrants it. Washer & Dryer are included without warranty. Please note: This property is a foreclosure.

18. 2025-09-24
    price $139,900 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    55+ Park! MOTIVATED SELLER - PRICE ADJUSTED!! We made a promise to update this home—and we’re delivering! Located in the desirable 55+ Delta Hawaii community, this rare 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an exceptionally spacious living area with a total of approximately 1440sqft. and all with new luxury vinyl plank flooring! The beautifully renovated kitchen features brand-new cabinets with stylish hardware, recessed lighting and may include new stainless steel appliances. Both bathrooms include updated cabinets, new light fixtures and accessories! There are so many upgrades throughout the home that we can’t list them all here! Some of the pictures are virtual staging. Buyer MAY be able to include appliances if the offer warrants it. Washer & Dryer are included without warranty. Please note: This property is a foreclosure.

19. 2025-08-23
    price $144,900 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    55+ Park! MOTIVATED SELLER - PRICE ADJUSTED!! We made a promise to update this home—and we’re delivering! Located in the desirable 55+ Delta Hawaii community, this rare 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an exceptionally spacious living area with a total of approximately 1440sqft. and all with new luxury vinyl plank flooring! The beautifully renovated kitchen features brand-new cabinets with stylish hardware, recessed lighting and may include new stainless steel appliances. Both bathrooms include updated cabinets, new light fixtures and accessories! There are so many upgrades throughout the home that we can’t list them all here! Some of the pictures are virtual staging. Buyer MAY be able to include appliances if the offer warrants it. Washer & Dryer are included without warranty. Please note: This property is a foreclosure.

20. 2025-07-28
    price $149,500 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    55+ Park! MOTIVATED SELLER - PRICE ADJUSTED!! We made a promise to update this home—and we’re delivering! Located in the desirable 55+ Delta Hawaii community, this rare 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an exceptionally spacious living area with a total of approximately 1440sqft. and all with new luxury vinyl plank flooring! The beautifully renovated kitchen features brand-new cabinets with stylish hardware, recessed lighting and may include new stainless steel appliances. Both bathrooms include updated cabinets, new light fixtures and accessories! There are so many upgrades throughout the home that we can’t list them all here! Some of the pictures are virtual staging. Buyer MAY be able to include appliances if the offer warrants it. Washer & Dryer are included without warranty. Please note: This property is a foreclosure.

21. 2025-01-30
    listed $155,000 Active 858-char remark

    Show marketing remark (858 chars)

    55+ Park! MOTIVATED SELLER - PRICE ADJUSTED!! We made a promise to update this home—and we’re delivering! Located in the desirable 55+ Delta Hawaii community, this rare 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an exceptionally spacious living area with a total of approximately 1440sqft. and all with new luxury vinyl plank flooring! The beautifully renovated kitchen features brand-new cabinets with stylish hardware, recessed lighting and may include new stainless steel appliances. Both bathrooms include updated cabinets, new light fixtures and accessories! There are so many upgrades throughout the home that we can’t list them all here! Some of the pictures are virtual staging. Buyer MAY be able to include appliances if the offer warrants it. Washer & Dryer are included without warranty. Please note: This property is a foreclosure.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,922
• − Management: −$2,922
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $17,026
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,086
• After-tax cash flow: $13,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 55+ manufactured home is in excellent condition with recent updates, including new flooring and cabinets. It's move-in ready and offers a spacious living area with a good curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor light fixtures — Improves curb appeal and functionality
• Both Install new outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor light fixtures — Improves curb appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Install new outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pittsburg Unified
• NCES district ID: 0630600
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,872
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #12238
• State rank: #1069 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pittsburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #687
• US rank: #20922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pittsburg, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 100,488
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 100,488
• Household income: $95,556
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3942.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 19% Asian 17% White 16% Black 13% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -478.40%
• Current HPI: 376.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $129,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $134,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $139,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $144,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $149,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-01-30 Listed $155,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR