50A S Phillips Ave · Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$1,999,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,934 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Built 2009 1.08 ac lot $508/sqft · 37% below area Est $3179k · 37% under ↓ 26% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Cash flow +2.7/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Drive down a picturesque, tree-lined driveway and arrive at this stunning post-modern home nestled on a spacious, 1.08 acre private property — the perfect blend of tranquility and modern living. Boasting 5 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, this open-concept residence offers exceptional space and comfort. Two story living room, with large arched windows, open to dining room and 2 sided fireplace, into large eat in kitchen, with separate pantry. The large master suite is a true retreat, complete with a cozy sitting room, two walk-in closets, and ample natural light. A 2nd floor convenient laundry room, while the fully finished basement adds an impressive 1,680 sq. ft. of additional living space — offers a Game Room, Gym, and T.V room entertaining guests. Step outside into your private backyard haven, ideal for gatherings and summer fun. Enjoy a refreshing swim in the 20x40 heated saltwater inground heated pool, relax on the deck, or explore the shed and charming playhouse. With Owned Solar Panels & 3 car garage. This property is more than a home — it's a lifestyle. Don't miss your chance to own this extraordinary retreat.

Key facts

• Two sided fireplace
• Large arched windows
• Tree lined driveway

Tags

• TREE LINED DRIVEWAY
• POST MODERN HOME
• SPACIOUS PRIVATE PROPERTY
• TWO STORY LIVING ROOM
• LARGE ARCHED WINDOWS
• TWO SIDED FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7k ($-81k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.03M (48.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $900k (55.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $900k (55.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 6.1% in Remsenburg-Speonk — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $170k of equity ($14k loan paydown + $156k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$272k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.88M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $900,000 (55.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.38%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 18.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,179,101
• List price: $1,999,999
• Delta: -37.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50A S Phillips Ave	0.00mi	5/3.0	3,934 (0%)	0mo	$1,900,000	$483	100
21 Rogers Ln	0.71mi	5/5.0	3,978 (+1%)	1mo	$2,325,000	$584	56
86 Cedar Ln	0.26mi	4/3.5 (-1)	4,236 (+8%)	16mo	$6,000,000	$1,416	55
49A S Bay Ave	0.54mi	5/5.5	3,924 (-0%)	11mo	$1,560,000	$398	55
10B South Bay Ave	0.72mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,900 (-1%)	14mo	$1,645,000	$422	46
10A S Bay Ave	0.72mi	4/3.5 (-1)	4,400 (+12%)	15mo	$1,600,000	$364	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $372,152
• Equity at exit: $1,493,487

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $1,396,982
• Equity at exit: $2,940,127

Cash invested: $560,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11960

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 18.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,488
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,500 /mo · $30,000/yr
• Insurance: −$833
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,890
• Net cashflow: $-6,712

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,496

Max offer price $1,028,828

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5,329	-5% $-6,020	+0% $-6,712	+5% $-7,403	+10% $-8,094
Rent	-10% $-7,423	-5% $-7,067	+0% $-6,712	+5% $-6,356	+10% $-6,001
Rate	-1.0pp $-5,704	-0.5pp $-6,203	base $-6,712	+0.5pp $-7,230	+1.0pp $-7,757

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $500,000
• Closing costs: $60,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Basket Neck Ln Remsenburg, NY	4.0	4.5	4759	$9,000	$1.89	3d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-04
   listed $1,999,999 Active 1156-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1156 chars)

   Drive down a picturesque, tree-lined driveway and arrive at this stunning post-modern home nestled on a spacious, 1.08 acre private property — the perfect blend of tranquility and modern living. Boasting 5 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, this open-concept residence offers exceptional space and comfort. Two story living room, with large arched windows, open to dining room and 2 sided fireplace, into large eat in kitchen, with separate pantry. The large master suite is a true retreat, complete with a cozy sitting room, two walk-in closets, and ample natural light. A 2nd floor convenient laundry room, while the fully finished basement adds an impressive 1,680 sq. ft. of additional living space — offers a Game Room, Gym, and T.V room entertaining guests. Step outside into your private backyard haven, ideal for gatherings and summer fun. Enjoy a refreshing swim in the 20x40 heated saltwater inground heated pool, relax on the deck, or explore the shed and charming playhouse. With Owned Solar Panels & 3 car garage. This property is more than a home — it's a lifestyle. Don't miss your chance to own this extraordinary retreat.

2. 2025-09-18
   historical
3. 2025-09-11
   price $2,349,000
4. 2025-09-04
   price $2,399,000
5. 2025-08-02
   price $2,499,000
6. 2025-07-25
   listed $2,699,000 Active
7. 2025-07-17
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $108,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$112,031
• − Property taxes: −$30,000
• − Insurance: −$10,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,640
• − Management: −$8,640
• − Depreciation: −$58,182
• Taxable loss: −$119,493
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$28,678
• After-tax cash flow: $-51,860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624420
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,972
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #389 of 755 in NY

Livability — Remsenburg-Speonk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
• City population: 1,346
• Population (ZIP): 1,037

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.81%
• Current HPI: 386.454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-25.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $1,999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $2,349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $2,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $2,499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Listed $2,699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid