Danford Plan · Bismarck, ND 58503

$201,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,307 sqft · Townhouse · 238 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Car wash bay
• Guest suite
• Garden plots

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING SPACE
• GUEST SUITE
• GARDEN PLOTS
• UNDERGROUND HEATED PARKING
• CAR WASH BAY
• FULLY SECURE BUILDING

🏗️ New construction. The $201,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $337,891.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $201k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-881 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C, #52 of 236 statewide, top 22%, 496 students, 5% FRL); Horizon Middle School (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D+, #13 of 35 statewide, top 35%, 1,044 students, 14% FRL); Century High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #14 of 144 statewide, top 9%, 1,427 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.

Recommended offer $176,880 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.17%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,891
• List price: $201,000
• Delta: -40.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
713 Bremner Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,334 (+2%)	4mo	$375,000	$281	64
706 Lasalle Dr E #5	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,147 (-12%)	0mo	$219,900	$192	51
829 Canada Ave #27	0.76mi	2/1.0	1,216 (-7%)	2mo	$202,000	$166	48
3719 Coleman St	1.03mi	2/2.0	1,184 (-9%)	3mo	$344,900	$291	47
707 Calvert Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,529 (+17%)	2mo	$405,000	$265	41
4916 Ottawa St #5	0.94mi	2/2.0	1,145 (-12%)	4mo	$215,000	$188	41
4912 Ottawa St #7	0.97mi	2/2.0	1,078 (-18%)	1mo	$224,000	$208	39
810 Bremner Ave	0.68mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,567 (+20%)	4mo	$305,000	$195	33
821 Bremner Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,567 (+20%)	2mo	$305,000	$195	33
3720 Renee Dr	0.89mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,525 (+17%)	0mo	$264,900	$174	33
806 Bremner Ave	0.66mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,567 (+20%)	6mo	$305,000	$195	32
942 Canada Ave	0.83mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,499 (+15%)	5mo	$315,000	$210	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-101,075
• Equity at exit: $50,381

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-115,826
• Equity at exit: $29,215

Cash invested: $94,609 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.4 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $215,000 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 238 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +61.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 679
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,772
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$422 /mo · $5,068/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-881

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,956

Max offer price $210,480

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-647	-5% $-764	+0% $-881	+5% $-997	+10% $-1,114
Rent	-10% $-1,026	-5% $-953	+0% $-881	+5% $-808	+10% $-735
Rate	-1.0pp $-710	-0.5pp $-795	base $-881	+0.5pp $-968	+1.0pp $-1,057

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,473
• Closing costs: $10,137
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4231 Serenity Ct Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1562	$2,395	$1.53	116d	1	0.47mi
4227 Serenity Ct Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1562	$2,395	$1.53	116d	1	0.47mi
4442 Serenity Ct Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1544	$2,395	$1.55	116d	1	0.48mi
4201 Montreal St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,546	$1.42	0d	12	0.55mi
4126A Normandy St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	1468	$1,750	$1.19	116d	1	0.69mi
202 E Greenfield Ln Apt 208 Bismarck, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	976	$1,725	$1.77	0d	6	0.77mi
220 E Greenfield Ln Unit B-402 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,661	$1.46	116d	1	0.81mi
425 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0–3.0	2.0	1020	$1,326	$1.30	0d	4	1.05mi
3415 Montreal St Apt 202 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1061	$1,365	$1.29	6d	1	1.13mi
444 E Brandon Dr Bismarck, ND	2.0–3.0	2.0	900	$1,110	$1.23	116d	1	1.16mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available via seller's site
• Financial info: List price $201,000

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan located in Bismarck, ND (Danford Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,307 (living space size provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named DanfordActive new-construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $201,000 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $201,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $201,000 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $201,000 Active 234 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $201,000 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $201,000 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $201,000 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $201,000 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $201,000 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $201,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $201,000 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $201,000 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $201,000 Active 220 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $201,000 Active 219 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $201,000 Active 218 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $201,000 Active 215 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $201,000 Active 214 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $201,000 Active 213 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $201,000 Active 212 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $201,000 Active 211 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $201,000 Active 210 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $201,000 Active 209 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $201,000 Active 208 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $201,000 Active 207 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $201,000 Active 206 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $201,000 Active 205 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $201,000 Active 204 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $201,000 Active 203 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $201,000 Active 202 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $201,000 Active 201 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $201,000 Active 200 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $201,000 Active 198 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $201,000 Active 197 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $201,000 Active 196 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $201,000 Active 195 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $201,000 Active 194 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $201,000 Active 193 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $201,000 Active 192 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $201,000 Active 191 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $201,000 Active 190 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $201,000 Active 189 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $201,000 Active 188 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $201,000 Active 187 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $201,000 Active 184 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $201,000 Active 183 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $201,000 Active 182 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $201,000 Active 180 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $201,000 Active 178 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $201,000 Active 177 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $201,000 Active 176 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,927
• − Property taxes: −$5,068
• − Insurance: −$1,689
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − Depreciation: −$9,830
• Taxable loss: −$16,955
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,069
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $65,350–$117,630 screening

This Danford townhouse requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof and landscaping, to become move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof footprint shows signs of wear and tear.
• Major exterior — The independent aerial image shows a lack of landscaping and fencing.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and fencing — Improving the exterior appeal will enhance both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both roof repair — A new roof will significantly increase the home's value and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Liberty Elementary School C ND #52/236 Nat'l #10,986/41,679 Middle Horizon Middle School D+ ND #13/35 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Century High School C- ND #14/144 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 119,359 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available via seller's site
• Financial info: List price $201,000

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan located in Bismarck, ND (Danford Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,307 (living space size provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named DanfordActive new-construction plan