642 Hillsboro Rd · Camden, NY 13316

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1999 20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Unique property with endless possibilities nestled nicely at the end of a private drive on 20 acres of land. A very large stick built addition with crawl space was constructed in 1999 attaching to what little remains of a 1974 manufactured home. This property has been reclassified to a single family ranch home that offers 1836 square feet of living space that includes: cathedral ceilings, 5 bedrooms, 2 full baths, living room and family room. There are 3 additional structures on the property that offer plenty of storage. Little River runs directly through the property and offers a great deal of recreational use and is fantastic for fishing. This year around residential property would also b

Key facts

• 20 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1999

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.1% in Camden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#549 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Camden Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #504 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.04%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $328,032
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
649 Hillsboro Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+1%)	8mo	$329,900	$268	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $64,941
• Equity at exit: $90,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.54×
• Total profit: $183,042
• Equity at exit: $194,278

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13316

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,080 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,472/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $872

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2023-12-27
   status Pending
2. 2020-09-25
   historical
3. 2020-06-07
   listed $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,472 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,581 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$109/yr (+$9/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,472
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,037
• − Management: −$1,037
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $402
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$96
• After-tax cash flow: $1,875/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606240
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,686
• Composite: 35.15/100
• National rank: #5008
• State rank: #504 of 590 in NY

Livability — Camden

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #9877

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,924

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.23%
• Current HPI: 316.4996
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2023-12-27 Pending — CNYIS
• 2020-09-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2020-06-07 Listed $100,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,472 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.