2222 W 38th St · Erie, PA 16506

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,087 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1954 0.35 ac lot Est $192k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SW Millcreek cape cod with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths - pretty back yard fenced in and room for your garden. Conveniently located and located near shopping and McDowell school campus. White kitchen with hi-mac countertop, stainless appliances and beautiful hardwood flooring. Full basement partially finished - bring those finishing touches and make this home yours!

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• White kitchen
• Room for your garden

Tags

• BACK YARD FENCED IN
• ROOM FOR YOUR GARDEN
• LOCATED NEAR SHOPPING
• WHITE KITCHEN
• HI-MAC COUNTERTOP
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $673 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grandview El Sch (math 55% / reading 69%, grade B, #313 of 1,518 statewide, top 24%, 659 students, 46% FRL); Walnut Creek Ms (math 43% / reading 72%, grade B, #61 of 512 statewide, top 13%, 449 students, 31% FRL); Mcdowell Hs (math 76% / reading 50%, grade B-, #72 of 437 statewide, top 16%, 2,205 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $150k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.24%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,399
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2222 W 38th St	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,087 (0%)	1mo	$160,000	$147	90
2114 Canton Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+2%)	1mo	$153,000	$139	87
3723 Court Ave	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,162 (+7%)	7mo	$85,000	$73	82
2408 W 36th St	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,114 (+2%)	3mo	$279,900	$251	78
3001 Highland Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,139 (+5%)	1mo	$240,000	$211	65
3621 Ellsworth Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (+4%)	7mo	$210,000	$185	50
2936 Rudolph Ave	0.62mi	2/1.5 (-1)	996 (-8%)	1mo	$191,500	$192	49
2918 Hudson Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,199 (+10%)	2mo	$162,900	$136	48
3025 Berkley Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+11%)	5mo	$175,000	$145	47
4041 Calico Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,167 (+7%)	6mo	$275,000	$236	46
4002 Harvard Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	4mo	$212,000	$177	45
1949 W 36th St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,247 (+15%)	6mo	$168,400	$135	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $18,618
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $71,589
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16506

• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,174 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$195 /mo · $2,341/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,322

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $758	-5% $716	+0% $673	+5% $631	+10% $588
Rent	-10% $502	-5% $587	+0% $673	+5% $759	+10% $845
Rate	-1.0pp $749	-0.5pp $712	base $673	+0.5pp $635	+1.0pp $595

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2857 Willowood Dr Unit 2901 Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	45d	1	0.78mi
4500 Hammocks Dr Erie, PA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1312	$3,270	$2.49	45d	7	0.79mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 542401 Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1327	$2,160	$1.63	45d	1	0.80mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536404 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,290	$1.62	45d	1	0.80mi
4536 Hammocks Dr Unit 536204 Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,275	$1.61	45d	1	0.80mi
4024 Canterbury Dr Erie, PA	2.0	1.5	1044	$1,350	$1.29	45d	1	1.12mi
3158 W 40th St Erie, PA	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,280	$1.25	45d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2005-05-04
   soldstatus $81,000
4. 1995-08-22
   soldstatus $77,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,341 · $195/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,355 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: +$15/yr (+$1/mo · 0.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,341
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,087
• − Management: −$2,087
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $6,058
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,454
• After-tax cash flow: $6,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 24,070
• Household income: $81,060
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -152.21%
• Current HPI: 228.7506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+93.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $150,000 GEBOR
• 2005-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,341 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.