195 Lake Harbor Rd · Brandon, MS 39047

$332,670

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily · 380 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.49 ac lot $195/sqft · at area comps Est $346k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Canal Place! Affordable new construction with quality finishes! Built by a trusted local builder, this home features an open-concept floor plan, modern kitchen with solid-surface countertops, stylish cabinetry, and durable flooring throughout. The private primary suite offers comfort and convenience, while additional bedrooms provide space for family, guests, or a home office. Energy-efficient windows fill the home with natural light, and a low-maintenance yard makes upkeep easy. Enjoy the peace of mind that comes with owning a brand-new home—affordable, move-in ready, and built to last!

Key facts

• Stylish cabinetry
• Durable flooring
• New construction

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SOLID-SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• STYLISH CABINETRY
• DURABLE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $333k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-511 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pisgah Elementary School (math 46% / reading 54%, grade D+, #61 of 375 statewide, top 17%, 507 students, 99% FRL); Pisgah High School (math 60% / reading 39%, grade D, #22 of 197 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $226,273 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.59%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $345,652
• List price: $332,670
• Delta: -3.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
346 Lake Harbor Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,826 (+7%)	18mo	$339,900	$186	61
344 Lake Harbor Rd	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,825 (+7%)	21mo	$339,900	$186	57
194 Lake Harbor Rd	0.80mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+3%)	5mo	$332,670	$189	56
190 Lake Harbor Rd	0.81mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-3%)	1mo	$321,500	$193	54
196 Lake Harbor Rd	0.80mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-9%)	4mo	$302,640	$195	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-86,674
• Equity at exit: $49,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-118,211
• Equity at exit: $28,763

Cash invested: $93,148 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,000 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 351 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,745
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,990/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-511

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,910

Max offer price $258,663

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-282	-5% $-396	+0% $-511	+5% $-626	+10% $-741
Rent	-10% $-690	-5% $-601	+0% $-511	+5% $-422	+10% $-333
Rate	-1.0pp $-344	-0.5pp $-427	base $-511	+0.5pp $-598	+1.0pp $-685

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,168
• Closing costs: $9,980
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $332,670 Active 380 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $332,670 Active 379 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $332,670 Active 378 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $332,670 Active 377 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $332,670 Active 375 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $332,670 Active 374 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $332,670 Active 373 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $332,670 Active 372 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $332,670 Active 371 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $332,670 Active 370 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $332,670 Active 369 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $332,670 Active 368 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $332,670 Active 362 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $332,670 Active 361 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $332,670 Active 360 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $332,670 Active 357 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $332,670 Active 356 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $332,670 Active 355 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $332,670 Active 354 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $332,670 Active 353 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $332,670 Active 352 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $332,670 Active 351 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $332,670 Active 350 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $332,670 Active 349 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $332,670 Active 348 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $332,670 Active 347 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $332,670 Active 346 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $332,670 Active 345 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $332,670 Active 344 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $332,670 Active 343 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $332,670 Active 342 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $332,670 Active 341 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $332,670 Active 340 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $332,670 Active 339 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $332,670 Active 338 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $332,670 Active 337 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $332,670 Active 336 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $332,670 Active 335 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $332,670 Active 334 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $332,670 Active 333 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $332,670 Active 332 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $332,670 Active 331 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $332,670 Active 330 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $332,670 Active 329 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $332,670 Active 326 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $332,670 Active 325 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $332,670 Active 324 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $332,670 Active 322 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $332,670 Active 320 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $332,670 Active 318 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,635
• − Property taxes: −$4,990
• − Insurance: −$1,663
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,172
• − Management: −$2,172
• − Depreciation: −$9,678
• Taxable loss: −$12,157
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,918
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in ready, brand-new single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It's an ideal investment opportunity.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pisgah Elementary School D+ MS #61/375 Nat'l #12,529/41,679 High Pisgah High School D MS #22/197 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 164,317 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-08 Listed $332,670 MLSU