78 Chaney Rd · Pine Knot, KY 42635

$129,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,842 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1950 1.00 ac lot $46/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity! This five bed / 2 bath home sits on a full acre on a quiet country road. The property offers over 2800 square feet of living space and would provide a lot of options to a potential owner. The home is in need of repairs and will not qualify for certain government-backed financing in it's current state, and as such, home is being sold as-is. Conveniently located to Whitley City, Stearns, Lake Cumberland, and the Big South Fork National Recreation Area. Please call today for your personal tour.

Key facts

• Quiet country road
• Full acre
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• QUIET COUNTRY ROAD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residential; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Has basement
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; 1-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Wood-burning fireplace; Basement with exterior entry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#494 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mccreary County (rural): math 22% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #135 of 165 in KY (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McCreary County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,074 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,657
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -56.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Twin Pine Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,760 (-3%)	22mo	$250,000	$91	43
134 Coffey Ln	0.50mi	3/2.5	2,440 (-14%)	14mo	$190,000	$78	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,403
• Equity at exit: $28,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $14,357
• Equity at exit: $27,325

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42635

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $917/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,027

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $203	-5% $166	+0% $129	+5% $92	+10% $55
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $82	+0% $129	+5% $176	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $194	-0.5pp $162	base $129	+0.5pp $95	+1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $129,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 23 DOM
19. 2026-05-18
    price $149,900 527-char remark
20. 2026-05-07
    listed $164,900 Active 527-char remark
21. 2025-06-30
    historical
22. 2025-01-29
    listed $145,000 Active
23. 2024-05-23
    historical
24. 2023-08-09
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $917 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,117 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$201/yr (+$17/mo · 21.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$917
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,143
• − Management: −$1,143
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$619
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$148
• After-tax cash flow: $1,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mccreary County
• NCES district ID: 2103990
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $22,071
• Composite: 22.24/100
• National rank: #8147
• State rank: #135 of 165 in KY

Livability — Pine Knot

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #494
• US rank: #24988

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Knot, KY
• Population (ZIP): 4,789

Population outlook (McCreary County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,097 people
• By 2030: 16,678 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 15,626 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 14,467 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 11,665 · -31.8%
• By 2100: 9,268 · -45.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McCreary

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+78.7) · D 10.3% · R 89.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.1pp · 2024: -78.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+78.7 2020: R+76.7 2016: R+75.3 2012: R+61.3 2008: R+52.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 154.4984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $129,900 RASKMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $139,900 RASKMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $149,900 RASKMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $164,900 RASKMLS
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $145,000 ImagineMLS
• 2024-05-23 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2023-08-09 Listed $140,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $917 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.