81 Philadelphia St · Buffalo, NY 14207

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,986 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1922 4,200 sqft lot $101/sqft · 46% below area Est $370k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Two-Unit property featuring spacious layouts in each unit, both offering 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Each unit includes a large kitchen with plenty of room for dining and storage. The home boasts durable vinyl siding and sits on a neighborhood street. Enjoy a nice yard, perfect for outdoor activities or relaxing. Great opportunity for owner-occupants or investors alike!

Key facts

• Spacious layouts
• Durable vinyl siding
• Large kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUTS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• DURABLE VINYL SIDING
• NICE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $759 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,441/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $200k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $187,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.27%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $370,265
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -46.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Philadelphia St	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,118 (+7%)	1mo	$260,000	$123	84
395 Ontario St	0.22mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,908 (-4%)	8mo	$270,000	$142	72
138 Ross Ave	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,896 (-4%)	8mo	$170,000	$90	71
50 Argus St	0.28mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,009 (+1%)	12mo	$230,000	$114	70
227 Crowley Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,909 (-4%)	6mo	$155,000	$81	68
102 Ullman St	0.41mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,098 (+6%)	3mo	$165,000	$79	64
27 Baxter St	0.43mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,028 (+2%)	11mo	$215,000	$106	62
24 Argus St	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,256 (+14%)	7mo	$210,000	$93	60
1176 Tonawanda St	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,792 (-10%)	2mo	$205,000	$114	53
407 Hinman Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,112 (+6%)	13mo	$200,000	$95	47
18 Lamont Pl	0.73mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (-7%)	12mo	$220,000	$119	40
24 Briggs Ave	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,192 (+10%)	13mo	$211,000	$96	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $28,753
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $145,616
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,441 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $454/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$513
• Net cashflow: $759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $872	-5% $816	+0% $759	+5% $702	+10% $646
Rent	-10% $566	-5% $663	+0% $759	+5% $855	+10% $952
Rate	-1.0pp $860	-0.5pp $810	base $759	+0.5pp $707	+1.0pp $654

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,440
Total (2 units)			$2,441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	2d	1	0.40mi
61 Baxter St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2014	$1,400	$0.70	2d	1	0.45mi
172 Tremont Ave Kenmore, NY	3.0	1.5	1569	$2,500	$1.59	11d	1	1.19mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	24d	1	1.28mi
78 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2030	$1,300	$0.64	15d	1	1.36mi
62 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,250	$0.95	24d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-03-24
    listed $199,900 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    Two-Unit property featuring spacious layouts in each unit, both offering 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom. Each unit includes a large kitchen with plenty of room for dining and storage. The home boasts durable vinyl siding and sits on a neighborhood street. Enjoy a nice yard, perfect for outdoor activities or relaxing. Great opportunity for owner-occupants or investors alike!

17. 2006-07-25
    soldstatus $62,300
18. 2005-12-12
    soldstatus $43,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $454 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,916 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,462/yr (+$122/mo · 322.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$454
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,343
• − Management: −$2,343
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $6,139
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,473
• After-tax cash flow: $7,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+359.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2006-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $62,300 Public Records
• 2005-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $454 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.