6802 N County Road 1630 · Shallowater, TX 79363

$74,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1978 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious .46+/- acre property featuring a 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home. The home offers a functional floor plan with a total recent remodel, providing comfortable everyday living and room to make it your own. There is a second mobile home on property that is not livable at the moment but can be remodeled to someone's liking. Enjoy the privacy and flexibility of country-style living while still being conveniently located just 15–20 minutes from Texas Tech University, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Ideal for those seeking space, affordability, and easy access to town. This property has 2 mobile homes on it #A and #B. #A is not livable. #B is occupied

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($899/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($750 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shallowater ISD (town): math 73% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #18 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.28%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $45,573
• Equity at exit: $67,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $130,477
• Equity at exit: $145,514

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$158
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7008 N C R 1500 Unit 20 Shallowater, TX	3.0	1.0	840	$750	$0.89	21d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,900 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $74,900 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $74,900 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $74,900 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    Spacious .46+/- acre property featuring a 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home. The home offers a functional floor plan with a total recent remodel, providing comfortable everyday living and room to make it your own. There is a second mobile home on property that is not livable at the moment but can be remodeled to someone's liking. Enjoy the privacy and flexibility of country-style living while still being conveniently located just 15–20 minutes from Texas Tech University, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Ideal for those seeking space, affordability, and easy access to town. This property has 2 mobile homes on it #A and #B. #A is not livable. #B is occupied

18. 2026-03-30
    listed $75,000 Active 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    Spacious .46+/- acre property featuring a 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home. The home offers a functional floor plan with a total recent remodel, providing comfortable everyday living and room to make it your own. There is a second mobile home on property that is not livable at the moment but can be remodeled to someone's liking. Enjoy the privacy and flexibility of country-style living while still being conveniently located just 15–20 minutes from Texas Tech University, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Ideal for those seeking space, affordability, and easy access to town. This property has 2 mobile homes on it #A and #B. #A is not livable. #B is occupied

19. 1999-08-01
    soldstatus
20. 1991-01-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$720
• − Management: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable loss: −$312
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$75
• After-tax cash flow: $974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shallowater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839870
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,288
• Composite: 59.69/100
• National rank: #903
• State rank: #18 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shallowater

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #5236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $74,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 1999-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $125 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.