2364 Oakbrook Dr · O'Fallon, MO 63368

$71,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,001 sqft · Manufactured · 111 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $630/mo HOA · 34% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just Listed! 2364 Oakbrook - Pin Oak Pointe 2026 Champion Prime Vertex - 3 Bed, 2 Bath Built for modern, low maintenance living, this brand new single width Vertex model features a well balanced 16×66' layout with an open living space, contemporary kitchen, and three comfortable bedrooms. The bright interior, clean finishes, and efficient design make this home both practical and inviting from day one.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 110 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $72k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.1% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,515 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.32%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $6,849
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $24,011
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,159 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63368

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,838 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$630
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,427

Max offer price $71,995

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $374	-5% $349	+0% $325	+5% $300	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $179	-5% $252	+0% $325	+5% $397	+10% $470
Rate	-1.0pp $361	-0.5pp $343	base $325	+0.5pp $306	+1.0pp $287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,999
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
314 Newbridge Way O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,100	$1.54	4d	1	0.18mi
60 Mora Blvd O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,150	$1.58	24d	1	0.26mi
440 Wild Oak Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.5	1214	$1,625	$1.34	12d	1	0.31mi
13300 Spring Creek Ln O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,450	$1.42	8d	1	0.44mi
9201 Spring Creek Ln Unit 9201 O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,600	$1.58	5d	1	0.49mi
9200 Spring Creek Ln O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	44d	1	0.49mi
6303 Spring River Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,697	$1.67	44d	1	0.65mi
4103 Spring River Dr Unit 4103 O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,600	$1.52	17d	1	0.67mi
214 Harmony Meadows Ct O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	18d	1	0.75mi
234 Harmony Meadows Ct O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	0.75mi
55 Timber Oaks Trl O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	44d	1	0.99mi
284 Stonewall Creek Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,575	$1.47	44d	1	1.03mi
101 Lemon Dr Lake St Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,228	$2.22	2d	16	1.04mi
104 Shire Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1462	$2,781	$1.90	5d	1	1.41mi
603 Country Village Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,825	$1.47	11d	1	1.43mi
4133 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,600	$1.42	44d	1	1.47mi
1124 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,495	$1.32	44d	1	1.47mi
5114 Welsh Dr Lake St Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,450	$1.30	15d	1	1.49mi
5114 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,450	$1.30	11d	1	1.49mi
5123 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,425	$1.26	8d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $630 · $7,560/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $71,995 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $71,995 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $71,995 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $71,995 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $71,995 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $71,995 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $71,995 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $71,995 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $71,995 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $71,995 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $71,995 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $71,995 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $71,995 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $71,995 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $71,995 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-03-02
    listed $71,995 Active 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Just Listed! 2364 Oakbrook - Pin Oak Pointe 2026 Champion Prime Vertex - 3 Bed, 2 Bath Built for modern, low maintenance living, this brand new single width Vertex model features a well balanced 16×66' layout with an open living space, contemporary kitchen, and three comfortable bedrooms. The bright interior, clean finishes, and efficient design make this home both practical and inviting from day one.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − HOA: −$7,560
• − Depreciation: −$2,094
• Taxable income: $3,401
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$816
• After-tax cash flow: $3,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-wide manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves functionality and appearance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: O'Fallon, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 46,966
• Household income: $124,297
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 538.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 219.7731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $71,995 Zillow