6882 Lake Mist Ln · Jacksonville, FL 32210

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,870 sqft · Townhouse public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2007 3,049 sqft lot Est $260k · 46% under $167/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2 story townhome, open floor plan, ALL NEW PAINT & CARPET, kitchen features maple cabinets, NEW black appliances and large kitchen island, tile floors in family room. Upstairs bedrooms are spacious, the master bedroom has a nice ensuite with tub shower combo. Bring your first time homebuyers who will love the quiet residential streets and park like setting. This is a Fannie Mae property.

Key facts

• $167 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $140k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.27%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,930
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6848 Lake Mist Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,592 (-15%)	7mo	$187,000	$117	65
6836 Misty View Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,617 (-14%)	21mo	$225,000	$139	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,791
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $19,169
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32210

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $755/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$167
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,294

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6851 Lake Mist Ln Unit A Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,745	$1.29	23d	1	0.05mi
6819 Lake Mist Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1344	$1,745	$1.30	23d	1	0.10mi
2327 Looking Glass Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,495	$1.13	1d	1	0.28mi
6650 Pinnochio Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	1665	$2,250	$1.35	21d	1	0.40mi
6947 Magdelena Dr Unit A11 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	2450	$1,880	$0.77	21d	1	0.43mi
2640 Hugh Edwards Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,495	$0.82	23d	1	0.47mi
7147 Eudine Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,585	$1.09	23d	1	0.48mi
7188 Koleda Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1473	$1,327	$0.90	3d	1	0.49mi
2528 Sadler Trace Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,000	$1.42	23d	1	0.52mi
2528 Sadler Trace Way Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,000	$1.42	16d	1	0.52mi
2512 Sadler Trace Way Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,750	$1.25	23d	1	0.53mi
7127 Prellie St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1388	$1,450	$1.04	21d	1	0.54mi
6822 McMullin St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,950	$1.11	14d	1	0.67mi
3740 Ballejo Ct W Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1590	$1,599	$1.01	23d	1	0.70mi
3668 Jammes Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,540	$1.26	4d	1	0.73mi
3607 Colebrooke Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,590	$1.17	3d	1	0.89mi
6560 Barmer Dr S Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1370	$1,750	$1.28	1d	1	0.98mi
4243 Matador Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,100	$1.45	23d	1	1.00mi
4336 Harlow Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,499	$1.06	1d	1	1.02mi
1756 Lane Ave S Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,399	$1.12	7d	1	1.02mi
6171 Cedar Hills Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1560	$1,550	$0.99	7d	1	1.02mi
4128 Arcot Cir Unit NA Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$1,800	$1.10	23d	1	1.05mi
6119 Wilson Blvd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1302	$1,395	$1.07	23d	1	1.05mi
4403 Harlow Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1642	$1,545	$0.94	4d	1	1.06mi
6236 Autlan Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,555	$1.20	4d	1	1.07mi
7705 Peace Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1849	$2,100	$1.14	4d	1	1.10mi
4020 Angol Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1266	$1,845	$1.46	17d	1	1.10mi
4102 Angol Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,650	$1.12	4d	1	1.10mi
1591 Lane Ave S Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,485	$1.56	23d	1	1.11mi
4481 Civic Way Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,872	$1.14	3d	1	1.11mi
4442 Georgetown Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,386	$1.10	3d	1	1.12mi
5821 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$1,330	$1.26	3d	7	1.12mi
2419 Winterwood Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,715	$1.12	20d	1	1.14mi
6026 Wilson Blvd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	3.0	1380	$700	$0.51	23d	1	1.16mi
7059 Melvin Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,600	$1.20	1d	1	1.19mi
2248 Patou Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	1338	$1,625	$1.21	20d	1	1.20mi
6815 Bambi Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,495	$0.98	21d	1	1.23mi
4425 Jana Ln E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,690	$1.32	12d	1	1.27mi
4285 Melissa Ct W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1320	$1,450	$1.10	14d	1	1.29mi
4710 Herta Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1272	$1,670	$1.31	23d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $167 · $2,004/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-10-17
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-19
   listed $140,000 Active
3. 2015-10-06
   soldstatus $81,000 Sold 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story townhome, open floor plan, ALL NEW PAINT & CARPET, kitchen features maple cabinets, NEW black appliances and large kitchen island, tile floors in family room. Upstairs bedrooms are spacious, the master bedroom has a nice ensuite with tub shower combo. Bring your first time homebuyers who will love the quiet residential streets and park like setting. This is a Fannie Mae property.

4. 2015-08-18
   status Pending 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story townhome, open floor plan, ALL NEW PAINT & CARPET, kitchen features maple cabinets, NEW black appliances and large kitchen island, tile floors in family room. Upstairs bedrooms are spacious, the master bedroom has a nice ensuite with tub shower combo. Bring your first time homebuyers who will love the quiet residential streets and park like setting. This is a Fannie Mae property.

5. 2015-08-11
   listed $89,900 Active 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story townhome, open floor plan, ALL NEW PAINT & CARPET, kitchen features maple cabinets, NEW black appliances and large kitchen island, tile floors in family room. Upstairs bedrooms are spacious, the master bedroom has a nice ensuite with tub shower combo. Bring your first time homebuyers who will love the quiet residential streets and park like setting. This is a Fannie Mae property.

6. 2015-06-02
   historical 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story townhome, open floor plan, kitchen features maple cabinets, black appliances and large kitchen island, tile floors in family room. Upstairs bedrooms are spacious, the master bedroom has a nice ensuite with tub shower combo. Bring your first time homebuyers who will love the quiet residential streets and park like setting. This is a Fannie Mae property.

7. 2015-05-22
   listed $77,900 Active 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Beautiful 2 story townhome, open floor plan, kitchen features maple cabinets, black appliances and large kitchen island, tile floors in family room. Upstairs bedrooms are spacious, the master bedroom has a nice ensuite with tub shower combo. Bring your first time homebuyers who will love the quiet residential streets and park like setting. This is a Fannie Mae property.

8. 2008-04-22
   historical
9. 2007-12-11
   soldstatus $134,990
10. 2007-10-12
    listed $144,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $755 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 53.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$755
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − HOA: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,951
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$468
• After-tax cash flow: $3,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 65,729
• Household income: $61,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3605.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.81%
• Current HPI: 281.2688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.11%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-17 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $140,000 realMLS
• 2015-10-06 Sold (MLS) $81,000 realMLS
• 2015-08-18 Pending — realMLS
• 2015-08-11 Listed $89,900 realMLS
• 2015-06-02 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2015-05-22 Listed $77,900 realMLS
• 2008-04-22 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-12-11 Sold (MLS) $134,990 realMLS
• 2007-10-12 Listed $144,990 realMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2015): $755 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.