651 Porpoise Rd · South Venice, FL 34293

$332,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1983 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 651 Porpoise Rd in beautiful Venice , Florida! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on an oversized lot, offering plenty of space, privacy, and room to enjoy the Florida lifestyle. Conveniently located near excellent shopping and restaurants, with a boat launch just a few streets away perfect for boating and water lovers. Enjoy quick access to the Gulf with Englewood Beach and Venice Beach both just minutes away. A fantastic opportunity to own a spacious home in a prime coastal location! All sizes approximate

Key facts

• Boat launch
• Quick access to gulf
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• BOAT LAUNCH
• QUICK ACCESS TO GULF
• PRIME COASTAL LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $332k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (32.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Taylor Ranch Elementary School (math 68% / reading 66%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 901 students, 39% FRL); Venice Middle School (math 71% / reading 58%, grade A-, #100 of 571 statewide, top 18%, 761 students, 37% FRL); Venice Senior High School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B-, #86 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,584 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1255 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($302k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $332k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,534 (32.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-73,302
• Equity at exit: $49,502

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-102,765
• Equity at exit: $28,705

Cash invested: $92,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34293

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 1255
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,741
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,514/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,539

Max offer price $292,454

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36	-5% $-130	+0% $-224	+5% $-318	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-402	-5% $-313	+0% $-224	+5% $-135	+10% $-46
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-139	base $-224	+0.5pp $-310	+1.0pp $-397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,000
• Closing costs: $9,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-02
   remarks 603-char remark
2. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $332,000 Pending 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $332,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $332,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-04-15
   price $339,000 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Welcome to 651 Porpoise Rd in beautiful Venice , Florida! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on an oversized lot, offering plenty of space, privacy, and room to enjoy the Florida lifestyle. Conveniently located near excellent shopping and restaurants, with a boat launch just a few streets away perfect for boating and water lovers. Enjoy quick access to the Gulf with Englewood Beach and Venice Beach both just minutes away. A fantastic opportunity to own a spacious home in a prime coastal location! All sizes approximate

6. 2026-03-24
   price $345,000 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Welcome to 651 Porpoise Rd in beautiful Venice , Florida! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on an oversized lot, offering plenty of space, privacy, and room to enjoy the Florida lifestyle. Conveniently located near excellent shopping and restaurants, with a boat launch just a few streets away perfect for boating and water lovers. Enjoy quick access to the Gulf with Englewood Beach and Venice Beach both just minutes away. A fantastic opportunity to own a spacious home in a prime coastal location! All sizes approximate

7. 2026-03-03
   listed $355,000 Active 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Welcome to 651 Porpoise Rd in beautiful Venice , Florida! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on an oversized lot, offering plenty of space, privacy, and room to enjoy the Florida lifestyle. Conveniently located near excellent shopping and restaurants, with a boat launch just a few streets away perfect for boating and water lovers. Enjoy quick access to the Gulf with Englewood Beach and Venice Beach both just minutes away. A fantastic opportunity to own a spacious home in a prime coastal location! All sizes approximate

8. 2007-04-30
   soldstatus $175,000
9. 2007-04-26
   soldstatus $175,000 470-char remark

   Show marketing remark (470 chars)

   Open & spacious 3BD 2BA 2CG South Venice home plus family rm all on a nicely landscaped 120x100 lot. Room sizes are very comfortable, including a master bedroom measuring 19x13! This home also offers additional room/privacy with a CLEARED 80x100 lot available directly behind home!(See MLS #501567) Bring your family & toys to this great home located less than 1 mile from South Venice beach & boat ramp. Motivated seller is providing a home warranty.

10. 2007-01-30
    listed $189,900 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Open & spacious 3BD 2BA 2CG South Venice home plus family rm all on a nicely landscaped 120x100 lot. Room sizes are very comfortable, including a master bedroom measuring 19x13! This home also offers additional room/privacy with a CLEARED 80x100 lot available directly behind home!(See MLS #501567) Bring your family & toys to this great home located less than 1 mile from South Venice beach & boat ramp. Motivated seller is providing a home warranty.

11. 1981-04-01
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,514 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,756 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,241/yr (+$103/mo · 82.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,597
• − Property taxes: −$1,514
• − Insurance: −$1,660
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − Depreciation: −$9,658
• Taxable loss: −$8,696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,087
• After-tax cash flow: $-599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Venice

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Venice, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 50,278
• Household income: $90,038
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 548.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -355.64%
• Current HPI: 270.5242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2725.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $339,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $345,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-26 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-30 Listed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1981-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,514 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.