1200 S Carpenter Rd #18 · Modesto, CA 95351

$89,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 223 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $91k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located at 1200 S Carpenter Rd #18 in Modesto, California, this inviting home awaits its ideal owner. This property is ready to move in. The living room is a captivating space, with a beamed and vaulted ceiling creating an airy and expansive atmosphere, while a wood wall adds a touch of rustic charm. This residence offers the convenience of a laundry room, a porch for enjoying the outdoors, a balcony for elevated relaxation, and a patio that extends the living space into the residential area. This mobile home offers a blend of comfort and convenience in a desirable location. Owner has added new carpets to the bedrooms and tile flooring to the laundry room, for the new owners to enjoy.

Key facts

• Porch
• Laundry room
• Balcony

Tags

• LAUNDRY ROOM
• PORCH
• BALCONY
• PATIO
• NEW CARPETS
• TILE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount listed separately (referenced)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; No land lease (land lease listed as No)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: other; 220V available in kitchen and laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double-wide unit; Built in 1979
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Manufactured home (Golden West)
• Exterior features: Private lot; Other-style roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Hood over range; Ice maker; Dishwasher; Microwave; Double oven; Electric cook top
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms with tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Covered porch with carpeted covered patio; Dining/Family combo; Ceramic counters in the kitchen; Living room with additional unspecified feature
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included inside the home (inside laundry room)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $758 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Modesto City Elementary (urban): math 15% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #462 of 517 in CA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.32%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,720
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1200 S Carpenter Rd #127	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	14mo	$90,000	$63	83
1200 S Carpenter Rd #144	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$83,000	$62	82
1200 S Carpenter Rd #72	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	16mo	$89,800	$67	76
1200 S Carpenter Rd #133	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	11mo	$90,000	$67	74
1200 S Carpenter Rd #118	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	20mo	$87,000	$60	69
1200 S Carpenter Rd #40	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	18mo	$50,000	$37	68
1200 S Carpenter Rd #66	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	15mo	$85,000	$68	56
1200 S Carpenter Rd #74	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	15mo	$55,000	$44	54
1427 Ritsch Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (+13%)	12mo	$390,000	$240	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $33,832
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $91,772
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95351

• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $758

Break-even live

Break-even rent $783

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,500 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,500 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,500 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,500 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,500 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,500 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,500 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,500 Active 213 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,500 Active 212 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,500 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,500 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,500 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,500 Active 206 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 205 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,500 Active 204 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $8,163
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,959
• After-tax cash flow: $7,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Modesto City Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0625130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,725
• Composite: 17.31/100
• National rank: #9083
• State rank: #462 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,498
• Household income: $58,275
• Rent vs Own: 51.7% rent · 48.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1964.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 40% White 13% Asian 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -405.77%
• Current HPI: 360.246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B