16148 N 168th Ln · Surprise, AZ 85388

$361,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2005 4,996 sqft lot $189/sqft · 8% below area Est $392k · 8% under $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Surprise Farms 4 bedroom 2 bath Single Level home. Granite Countertops, Tile floors through Traffic areas. Living room with Dining area, High Breakfast Bar in Kitchen with Dining area open to Family room. Master Bedroom has Walk in Closet. Master Bath has 2 sinks, Separate Shower and Garden Tub. Jack 'n Jill Hall bath with 2 sinks separates Master and Bedroom 2 from Bedrooms 3 and 4. Covered patio, private back yard, beautiful Custom Pavers Extended Patio area. Safe family neighborhood, close to several Parks and Surprise Farms Skate Park. Close to Schools, Shopping, Bell Road and Loop 303. Near Surprise Stadium, Spring Training home of the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers. Certified Pre-Owned Home! Home Inspected, One Guard Home Warranty in place. Immaculate and Move-in-ready!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• Fenced-in backyard

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $52 monthly fee that includes grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Owner-provided building area source
• Exterior features: Wood frame construction with painted exterior; Block fencing; Tile roof; Gravel/stone front and back yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Full bath in primary bedroom; Fireplace; Has heating (Natural Gas); Has cooling (Other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $361k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cimarron Springs Middle School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D+, #40 of 218 statewide, top 19%, 589 students, 35% FRL); Cimarron Springs Middle School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D+, #40 of 218 statewide, top 19%, 589 students, 35% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($350k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,526 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.40%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,522
• List price: $361,000
• Delta: -7.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16149 N 171st Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,948 (+2%)	3mo	$360,000	$185	75
16844 W Statler St	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,659 (-13%)	4mo	$382,000	$230	64
16543 W Ironwood St	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,982 (+4%)	7mo	$395,000	$199	64
17278 W Bridger St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,945 (+2%)	1mo	$440,000	$226	58
16253 N 164th Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,843 (-4%)	2mo	$453,000	$246	57
17156 W Young St	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,059 (+8%)	3mo	$440,000	$214	56
15820 N 164th Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,775 (-7%)	2mo	$395,000	$223	55
16373 W Paradise Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,993 (+4%)	6mo	$450,000	$226	54
16329 W Rimrock St	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,864 (-3%)	1mo	$431,000	$231	54
17145 W Ironwood St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (-13%)	1mo	$389,000	$233	49
15518 N 170th Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (-15%)	1mo	$380,000	$233	45
16678 N 174th Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,166 (+13%)	1mo	$420,000	$194	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.28% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-31,214
• Equity at exit: $109,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-25,891
• Equity at exit: $136,398

Cash invested: $101,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85388

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,893
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,375/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,798

Max offer price $310,436

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-82	-5% $-184	+0% $-286	+5% $-388	+10% $-491
Rent	-10% $-479	-5% $-382	+0% $-286	+5% $-190	+10% $-94
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-194	base $-286	+0.5pp $-380	+1.0pp $-475

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,250
• Closing costs: $10,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16818 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2567	$1,895	$0.74	16d	1	0.12mi
16121 N 168th Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2567	$2,695	$1.05	26d	1	0.16mi
16903 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2426	$2,295	$0.95	45d	1	0.19mi
16829 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	26d	1	0.25mi
17009 W Marconi Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,862	$1.31	45d	1	0.25mi
16166 N 170th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,775	$1.30	26d	1	0.25mi
16663 W Rimrock St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2192	$2,195	$1.00	0d	1	0.30mi
15927 N 171st Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,200	$1.92	45d	1	0.31mi
17127 W Statler St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2543	$2,600	$1.02	26d	1	0.33mi
16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,749	$1.09	0d	1	0.41mi
16612 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,749	$1.09	19d	1	0.41mi
16003 N Cristine Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,200	$0.92	45d	1	0.47mi
16559 W Post Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,789	$1.12	23d	1	0.47mi
17272 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,085	$1.04	45d	1	0.50mi
16444 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2285	$2,795	$1.22	13d	1	0.54mi
17190 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,699	$1.13	25d	1	0.56mi
16523 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,175	$1.34	3d	1	0.61mi
17315 W Tara Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2379	$2,500	$1.05	12d	1	0.61mi
17210 W Elm St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1746	$2,900	$1.66	45d	1	0.66mi
17331 W Saguaro Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2403	$2,295	$0.96	45d	1	0.70mi
17229 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,245	$0.98	6d	1	0.70mi
17259 W Smokey Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2190	$2,150	$0.98	7d	1	0.73mi
15143 N 172nd Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.0	2291	$2,795	$1.22	45d	1	0.75mi
17057 W Manchester Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,695	$1.01	12d	1	0.78mi
17218 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,800	$1.20	13d	1	0.79mi
17236 W Country Gables Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	2291	$2,795	$1.22	45d	1	0.81mi
15512 N 174th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	2147	$3,000	$1.40	45d	1	0.82mi
16561 N 175th Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2255	$2,350	$1.04	0d	1	0.83mi
16212 N 162nd Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,889	$1.44	7d	1	0.86mi
17440 W Caribbean Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2159	$2,300	$1.07	4d	1	0.86mi
14945 N 172nd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,099	$1.24	7d	1	0.88mi
17573 W Lundberg St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2255	$2,290	$1.02	5d	1	0.90mi
17573 W Lundberg St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	2255	$2,265	$1.00	3d	1	0.90mi
17610 W Ironwood St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2149	$2,150	$1.00	6d	1	0.91mi
16755 N Sarival Ave Surprise, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,255	$2.22	0d	1	0.95mi
17647 N 167th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1789	$2,035	$1.14	14d	1	0.95mi
15164 N 173rd Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2048	$2,495	$1.22	25d	1	0.99mi
17395 W Langer Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1902	$1,995	$1.05	26d	1	1.00mi
15943 W Central St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,895	$1.20	7d	1	1.02mi
17714 W Marshall Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,485	$1.06	20d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $361,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $361,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $361,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $361,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $361,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $361,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $380,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $380,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $380,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $380,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $380,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $380,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $380,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $380,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $380,000 Active 434-char remark
16. 2026-04-24
    soldstatus $380,000
17. 2017-04-17
    soldstatus $213,000 Closed 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Surprise Farms 4 bedroom 2 bath Single Level home. Granite Countertops, Tile floors through Traffic areas. Living room with Dining area, High Breakfast Bar in Kitchen with Dining area open to Family room. Master Bedroom has Walk in Closet. Master Bath has 2 sinks, Separate Shower and Garden Tub. Jack 'n Jill Hall bath with 2 sinks separates Master and Bedroom 2 from Bedrooms 3 and 4. Covered patio, private back yard, beautiful Custom Pavers Extended Patio area. Safe family neighborhood, close to several Parks and Surprise Farms Skate Park. Close to Schools, Shopping, Bell Road and Loop 303. Near Surprise Stadium, Spring Training home of the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers. Certified Pre-Owned Home! Home Inspected, One Guard Home Warranty in place. Immaculate and Move-in-ready!

18. 2017-04-17
    soldstatus $213,000

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Surprise Farms 4 bedroom 2 bath Single Level home. Granite Countertops, Tile floors through Traffic areas. Living room with Dining area, High Breakfast Bar in Kitchen with Dining area open to Family room. Master Bedroom has Walk in Closet. Master Bath has 2 sinks, Separate Shower and Garden Tub. Jack 'n Jill Hall bath with 2 sinks separates Master and Bedroom 2 from Bedrooms 3 and 4. Covered patio, private back yard, beautiful Custom Pavers Extended Patio area. Safe family neighborhood, close to several Parks and Surprise Farms Skate Park. Close to Schools, Shopping, Bell Road and Loop 303. Near Surprise Stadium, Spring Training home of the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers. Certified Pre-Owned Home! Home Inspected, One Guard Home Warranty in place. Immaculate and Move-in-ready!

19. 2017-03-13
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Surprise Farms 4 bedroom 2 bath Single Level home. Granite Countertops, Tile floors through Traffic areas. Living room with Dining area, High Breakfast Bar in Kitchen with Dining area open to Family room. Master Bedroom has Walk in Closet. Master Bath has 2 sinks, Separate Shower and Garden Tub. Jack 'n Jill Hall bath with 2 sinks separates Master and Bedroom 2 from Bedrooms 3 and 4. Covered patio, private back yard, beautiful Custom Pavers Extended Patio area. Safe family neighborhood, close to several Parks and Surprise Farms Skate Park. Close to Schools, Shopping, Bell Road and Loop 303. Near Surprise Stadium, Spring Training home of the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers. Certified Pre-Owned Home! Home Inspected, One Guard Home Warranty in place. Immaculate and Move-in-ready!

20. 2017-03-01
    listed $209,000 Active 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    Surprise Farms 4 bedroom 2 bath Single Level home. Granite Countertops, Tile floors through Traffic areas. Living room with Dining area, High Breakfast Bar in Kitchen with Dining area open to Family room. Master Bedroom has Walk in Closet. Master Bath has 2 sinks, Separate Shower and Garden Tub. Jack 'n Jill Hall bath with 2 sinks separates Master and Bedroom 2 from Bedrooms 3 and 4. Covered patio, private back yard, beautiful Custom Pavers Extended Patio area. Safe family neighborhood, close to several Parks and Surprise Farms Skate Park. Close to Schools, Shopping, Bell Road and Loop 303. Near Surprise Stadium, Spring Training home of the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers. Certified Pre-Owned Home! Home Inspected, One Guard Home Warranty in place. Immaculate and Move-in-ready!

21. 2010-02-16
    soldstatus $125,000

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Beautiful home features granite counter tops, upgraded cabinets, new appliances including washer and dryer. **INCOME PROPERTY** Similar homes in same subdivision currently renting for $1000+ per month!!! Huge Jack and Jill bathroom with cultured marble and double sinks. Master bath has garden tub and separate shower and double sinks. Upgraded carpet pad throughout. Covered patio, close to elementary school and across from a park. Corner lot that sides greenbelt. Wonderful home in convenient location!! Great neighborhood.

22. 2010-01-25
    historical

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Beautiful home features granite counter tops, upgraded cabinets, new appliances including washer and dryer. **INCOME PROPERTY** Similar homes in same subdivision currently renting for $1000+ per month!!! Huge Jack and Jill bathroom with cultured marble and double sinks. Master bath has garden tub and separate shower and double sinks. Upgraded carpet pad throughout. Covered patio, close to elementary school and across from a park. Corner lot that sides greenbelt. Wonderful home in convenient location!! Great neighborhood.

23. 2009-08-25
    listed $128,000

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Beautiful home features granite counter tops, upgraded cabinets, new appliances including washer and dryer. **INCOME PROPERTY** Similar homes in same subdivision currently renting for $1000+ per month!!! Huge Jack and Jill bathroom with cultured marble and double sinks. Master bath has garden tub and separate shower and double sinks. Upgraded carpet pad throughout. Covered patio, close to elementary school and across from a park. Corner lot that sides greenbelt. Wonderful home in convenient location!! Great neighborhood.

24. 2006-04-05
    soldstatus $272,600
25. 2006-03-24
    soldstatus $267,000
26. 2006-03-04
    historical
27. 2005-12-15
    listed $269,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,383 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,008/yr (+$84/mo · 73.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,222
• − Property taxes: −$1,375
• − Insurance: −$1,805
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,338
• − Management: −$2,338
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$10,502
• Taxable loss: −$9,980
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,395
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,369
• Household income: $112,164
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 224.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Current HPI: 272.9859
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+34.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $361,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $380,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $380,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $213,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-17 Sold (MLS) $213,000 ARMLS
• 2017-03-13 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-03-01 Listed $209,000 ARMLS
• 2010-02-16 Sold (MLS) $125,000 ARMLS
• 2010-01-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-08-25 Listed $128,000 ARMLS
• 2006-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $272,600 Public Records
• 2006-03-24 Sold (MLS) $267,000 ARMLS
• 2006-03-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-12-15 Listed $269,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,375 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.