403 Gribben St · Thomasville, GA 31792

$74,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1981 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT INVESTMENT PROPERTY! 3 BR, 1.5 BA, next door to several renovated homes. Home has updated HVAC unit. Close to downtown and shops! Seller is motivated! Make an offer!

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Pool
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $863 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.1% vs local median 3.7% in Thomasville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#77 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, commute F.
• Thomasville City (town): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #87 of 174 in GA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Thomas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thomas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $75k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.40%
• DSCR: 3.20
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $40,248
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 Gribben St	0.00mi	3/1.5	936 (0%)	1mo	$60,000	$64	100
104 Neel St	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	927 (-1%)	2mo	$20,000	$22	83
114 Elizabeth St	0.48mi	3/1.5	936 (0%)	3mo	$105,000	$112	75
329 Law St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+5%)	11mo	$30,000	$31	72
311 Jones St	0.55mi	3/1.0	954 (+2%)	2mo	$16,500	$17	67
1003 Wright St	0.74mi	3/1.0	948 (+1%)	9mo	$156,000	$165	54
203 Lester St	0.72mi	3/1.0	912 (-3%)	11mo	$135,000	$148	51
606 Raleigh Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,035 (+11%)	22mo	$20,000	$19	48
218 Teddy St	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,068 (+14%)	11mo	$45,500	$43	45
131 Florida Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-8%)	10mo	$37,000	$43	43
622 Lester St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+11%)	11mo	$30,000	$29	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $42,830
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $108,017
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31792

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $228/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $561

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $906	-5% $885	+0% $863	+5% $842	+10% $821
Rent	-10% $733	-5% $798	+0% $863	+5% $929	+10% $994
Rate	-1.0pp $901	-0.5pp $882	base $863	+0.5pp $844	+1.0pp $824

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 Remington Ave Thomasville, GA	2.0	1.0	891	$1,575	$1.77	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   price $74,900
3. 2026-02-09
   price $79,000
4. 2026-02-02
   price $84,900
5. 2026-02-02
   price $79,000
6. 2026-01-28
   listed $95,000 Active
7. 2011-11-23
   soldstatus $27,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $228 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $689 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$461/yr (+$38/mo · 202.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$228
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $9,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,326
• After-tax cash flow: $8,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thomasville City
• NCES district ID: 1304950
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $31,040
• Composite: 26.85/100
• National rank: #7106
• State rank: #87 of 174 in GA

Livability — Thomasville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #6678

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thomasville, GA
• County: Thomas County · 22,962 people
• City population: 22,962
• Metro: Thomasville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,962
• Household income: $50,460
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1059.0

Population outlook (Thomas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,303 people
• By 2030: 45,052 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 44,034 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,310 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 37,569 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 30,676 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 47% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thomas

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.17%
• Current HPI: 228.0107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Thomasville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+168.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — TABRMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $74,900 TABRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $79,000 TABRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $84,900 TABRMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $79,000 TABRMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $95,000 TABRMLS
• 2011-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $27,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $228 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.