4965 Elizabeth St N · Keizer, OR 97303

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,790 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1954 0.27 ac lot Est $498k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Prime investment opportunity! This ranch-style home offers a functional layout with tons of potential, featuring hardwood floors, a classic brick fireplace, and spacious rooms throughout. Situated on an oversized flat RM-zoned multifamily lot, the property presents additional possibilities for future development. Convenient Keizer location close to shopping, dining, schools, and commuter routes.

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Hardwood floors
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• CONVENIENT KEIZER LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Situated on an oversized RM-zoned multifamily lot

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Gas water heater
• Home design: Single-story ranch-style home; Built in 1954; White exterior
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition (asphalt) roof; Continuous foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Covered patio; Shed (outbuilding)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Main-level primary bedroom approximately 15' x 11'; Main-level second bedroom approximately 13' x 11'; Third bedroom approximately 12' x 11'
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Wood and vinyl flooring throughout; Brick wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Rec room (bonus room)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($956/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.9% in Keizer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#56 in OR, #1,918 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D+.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cummings Elementary School (435 students, 97% FRL); Claggett Creek Middle School (829 students, 73% FRL); Mcnary High School (2,081 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 53% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $285k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,252 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $497,620
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
291 Janet Ave N	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,869 (+4%)	7mo	$425,000	$227	84
613 Lakefair Pl N	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,839 (+3%)	8mo	$625,000	$340	62
755 Ventura St N	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-13%)	2mo	$445,000	$285	61
818 Chehalis Pl N	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,800 (+1%)	2mo	$490,000	$272	61
4875 Crater Ave N	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-13%)	3mo	$440,000	$283	60
820 Ivy Way NE	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,665 (-7%)	1mo	$349,231	$210	58
870 Rafael Ave N	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-8%)	4mo	$455,700	$278	54
4575 Clark Ave NE	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,632 (-9%)	2mo	$330,000	$202	54
1073 Rafael Ave N	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,908 (+7%)	1mo	$495,000	$259	49
988 Ventura Ave N	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,954 (+9%)	8mo	$410,000	$210	49
5749 Waterford Way	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,579 (-12%)	7mo	$484,000	$307	40
845 Sonata Ln N	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,546 (-14%)	4mo	$470,000	$304	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-39,364
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-20,468
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97303

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,403 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,460/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,302

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $160	+0% $80	+5% $-1	+10% $-82
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-15	+0% $80	+5% $175	+10% $269
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $152	base $80	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4848 Elvira Pl N Keizer, OR	3.0	2.5	1838	$2,600	$1.41	45d	2	0.22mi
776 Dearborn Ave NE Keizer, OR	3.0	1.0	1230	$2,300	$1.87	45d	1	0.42mi
491 Marino Dr N Unit 495 Keizer, OR	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,350	$1.83	15d	1	0.62mi
4928 13th Ave NE Keizer, OR	4.0	1.5	1312	$2,425	$1.85	23d	1	0.69mi
4853 Verda Ln NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$2,279	$2.35	15d	10	0.85mi
5188 Perry St NE Keizer, OR	3.0	2.0	1362	$2,550	$1.87	15d	1	1.02mi
6766 Fenwick Ct N Keizer, OR	4.0	2.0	1488	$2,500	$1.68	25d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $285,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   remarks 398-char remark
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   remarks 393-char remark
5. 2026-06-09
   listed $285,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,460 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,764 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 12.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,460
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,306
• − Management: −$2,306
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$3,923
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$942
• After-tax cash flow: $1,897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Keizer

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1918

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keizer, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 40,659
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,659
• Household income: $84,871
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.84%
• Current HPI: 292.0057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+375.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $285,000 WVMLS
• 2007-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2007-12-21 Sold (MLS) $165,000 WVMLS
• 2007-07-13 Listed $175,000 WVMLS
• 1996-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $66,700 Public Records
• 1993-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,460 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.