348 15th St E · Lakehills, TX 78063

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2006 0.52 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Half acre with private water well and aerobic septic. This property ( ID 173131) served as a private family homestead for over 20 years but it is time to downsize and let a new owner enjoy the tranquility this parcel offers. Located with road frontage between 15 St and 16 St nearby the Lakehills community center so it is not too far away from Boerne and San Antonio. The sale includes and additional lot ID 139595.

Key facts

• Aerobic septic
• Road frontage
• Additional lot

Tags

• PRIVATE WATER WELL
• AEROBIC SEPTIC
• ROAD FRONTAGE
• LAKEHILLS COMMUNITY CENTER
• ADDITIONAL LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; For sale (not a short sale)
• Financial info: Down payment resources: not indicated
• HOA & community: Subdivision: AVALON

Exterior

• Parking: No specific parking details provided
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Electric service by BEC; Private well water; Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Single-family home (pre-owned); Approximate age: 20 years; Siding exterior; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by Oak Creek Homes
• Exterior features: Corner and irregular lot; Wooded with mature trees; Sloping lot; Lake Medina nearby; Gravel and dirt access with county and easement roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen — 14 x 9
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (split floorplan) — 14 x 12; Bedroom 2 — 14 x 14; Bedroom 3 — 10 x 10
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Other flooring (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with separate tub and shower — 9 x 7
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); One heating unit; Three or more window air-conditioning units
• Interior features: Living/Dining room combination; Single living area; Ground-level entry with no steps; All bedrooms on the main floor; All window coverings remain; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry on main level; Utility room — 10 x 6

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.1% in Lakehills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#963 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hill Country El (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 483 students, 62% FRL); Bandera H S (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 713 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 271 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.92%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $14,916
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $53,164
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78063

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,780/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $904

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $516	+0% $488	+5% $460	+10% $431
Rent	-10% $368	-5% $428	+0% $488	+5% $548	+10% $608
Rate	-1.0pp $538	-0.5pp $513	base $488	+0.5pp $462	+1.0pp $436

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10685 Park Road 37 Unit D Lakehills, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,025	$0.84	16d	1	0.45mi
912 Pebble Beach Rd NW Lakehills, TX	3.0	1.5	1820	$2,000	$1.10	25d	1	0.89mi
186 Lakeview Rd Lakehills, TX	2.0	1.0	920	$1,800	$1.96	0d	1	1.05mi
1923 Pebble Beach Rd Lakehills, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,900	$1.35	0d	1	1.20mi
488 Black Bass Rd Lakehills, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	0d	1	1.35mi
182 Laurel Ridge Dr Pipe Creek, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$1,600	$0.90	16d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $100,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 New 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 New 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 New 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 New 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 New 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $100,000 New
15. 2026-02-06
    historical
16. 2025-05-17
    price $89,999
17. 2025-02-06
    listed $99,999 New
18. 2019-02-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,780 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$50/yr (+$4/mo · 2.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,780
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,461
• − Management: −$1,461
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,552
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $4,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakehills

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #17024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakehills, TX
• City population: 10,594
• Population (ZIP): 10,594

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.38%
• Current HPI: 189.1086
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $100,000 LERA
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $89,999 LERA
• 2025-02-06 Listed $99,999 LERA
• 2019-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,780 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.