2438 Paden St · Jackson, MS 39204

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 314 Days on market

Built 1954 0.34 ac lot $43/sqft · 11% above area Est $41k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers strong potential for the right buyer. With some TLC and updates, this property can be transformed into a great rental or primary residence. Ideal for investors or renovators looking to add value.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $564 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($30k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.71%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $40,718
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: 10.52%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2647 Glenn St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (+1%)	2mo	$14,500	$14	86
715 Dorgan St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,122 (+8%)	6mo	$77,500	$69	70
2524 Coronet Pl	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,190 (+14%)	3mo	$30,000	$25	61
2364 Coronet Pl	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,190 (+14%)	6mo	$74,500	$63	61
1904 Willaneel Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0	1,091 (+4%)	6mo	$15,000	$14	56
3008 Woodbine St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,070 (+2%)	6mo	$3,500	$3	55
2023 Paden St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,111 (+6%)	6mo	$31,999	$29	55
218 Hilliyard Ct	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (-6%)	4mo	$24,900	$25	51
2805 Engleside Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+15%)	0mo	$54,200	$45	46
1906 Shamrock Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,156 (+11%)	5mo	$59,000	$51	40
936 Winn St	0.43mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,196 (+15%)	6mo	$44,500	$37	40
167 Treehaven Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,151 (+10%)	1mo	$39,500	$34	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $66,436
• Equity at exit: $40,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.5%
• Equity multiple: 15.47×
• Total profit: $182,274
• Equity at exit: $87,425

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39204

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,132 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $906/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $564

Break-even live

Break-even rent $418

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2401 Coronet Pl Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	23d	1	0.10mi
843 Reaves St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,084	$0.77	43d	1	0.36mi
225 W McDowell Rd Apt L2 Jackson, MS	1.0	1.0	896	$750	$0.84	21d	1	0.41mi
225 W McDowell Rd Jackson, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$975	$1.08	43d	18	0.41mi
2858 Fairhill Dr Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	900	$825	$0.92	43d	1	0.53mi
2786 Brookwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,100	$1.10	43d	1	0.76mi
201 W Santa Clair St Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1182	$950	$0.80	23d	1	0.82mi
201 W Santa Clair St Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1182	$950	$0.80	13d	1	0.82mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	13d	1	0.93mi
1126 Barbara Ann Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1343	$1,000	$0.74	43d	1	0.93mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	43d	1	1.01mi
316 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1185	$1,250	$1.05	13d	1	1.01mi
267 Woody Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1165	$1,100	$0.94	43d	1	1.04mi
2873 Teresa Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.12mi
3152 Bilgray Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	13d	1	1.12mi
1645 Camellia Ln Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,200	$0.95	13d	1	1.17mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	23d	1	1.19mi
1513 Maria Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	13d	1	1.19mi
1223 Marydale Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1300	$950	$0.73	43d	1	1.20mi
422 Cooper Rd Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1049	$1,426	$1.36	23d	1	1.36mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	43d	1	1.39mi
3030 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	13d	1	1.39mi
427 McDowell Park Cir Jackson, MS	3.0	1.5	1308	$1,200	$0.92	13d	1	1.47mi
3122 Oak Forest Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,100	$0.77	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 314 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 313 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 312 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 311 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 309 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 308 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 306 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 305 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 304 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 303 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 300 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 299 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 298 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 297 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 296 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 295 DOM
17. 2025-08-08
    listed $45,000 Active 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers strong potential for the right buyer. With some TLC and updates, this property can be transformed into a great rental or primary residence. Ideal for investors or renovators looking to add value.

18. 2013-05-29
    soldstatus 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Come see this cute 3 bedroom 1 bathroom home in Jackson! Located close to the interstate, shopping and dining!! The property features an open kitchen with ceramic tile flooring Great Floor Plan!! Step out back and enjoy your backyard with a full screened in back porch AND deck. You will not want to miss this one! Call you realtor today!! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property sold As-IS. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. For more information about HomePath financing and incentives, please ask your realtor. Taxes estimated.

19. 2013-05-17
    soldstatus
20. 2013-03-07
    listed $9,900 613-char remark

    Show marketing remark (613 chars)

    Come see this cute 3 bedroom 1 bathroom home in Jackson! Located close to the interstate, shopping and dining!! The property features an open kitchen with ceramic tile flooring Great Floor Plan!! Step out back and enjoy your backyard with a full screened in back porch AND deck. You will not want to miss this one! Call you realtor today!! This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property sold As-IS. Purchase this property for as little as 3% down! This property is approved for HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing. For more information about HomePath financing and incentives, please ask your realtor. Taxes estimated.

21. 2008-09-19
    soldstatus
22. 2005-09-29
    soldstatus
23. 2001-11-28
    soldstatus
24. 1998-10-09
    soldstatus
25. 1997-08-15
    soldstatus
26. 1988-10-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $906 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $906 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$906
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,087
• − Management: −$1,087
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,448
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,548
• After-tax cash flow: $5,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 13,249
• Household income: $30,237
• Rent vs Own: 66.3% rent · 33.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1099.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.25%
• Current HPI: 233.9061
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.56%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+354.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-08 Listed $45,000 MLSU
• 2013-05-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-03-07 Listed $9,900 MLSU
• 2008-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-11-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $906 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.