12588 Cottage Rd · Perrysburg, NY 14138

$44,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,814 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1850 6.15 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Occupied, DO NOT DISTURB OCCUPANTS OR STEP INTO PROPERTY. Newer pictures to be uploaded asap. EMD, POF and Buyer's agreement must be part of all offers, sight unseen for now. All required addendums will be attached to purchase offer paperwork which will be produced by Castle Rock LLC. at time of contract agreement.

Key facts

• 6.15 acre lot
• Built 1850
• Listed 59 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 6.15 acres; Horses allowed

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Two-story existing residence; Resale property; Lot dimensions approximately 340 x 785
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Country-style kitchen
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varies; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating details listed in remarks
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Has partial basement; Total of 7 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $592 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#880 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Gowanda Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #513 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($310 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $43,553 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.53%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $51,647
• Equity at exit: $29,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.73×
• Total profit: $122,291
• Equity at exit: $53,755

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14138

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,240 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,595/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $592

Break-even live

Break-even rent $490

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $618	-5% $605	+0% $592	+5% $580	+10% $567
Rent	-10% $494	-5% $543	+0% $592	+5% $641	+10% $690
Rate	-1.0pp $615	-0.5pp $604	base $592	+0.5pp $581	+1.0pp $569

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   price $44,900
3. 2026-03-26
   price $47,900
4. 2026-02-28
   listed $49,900 Active
5. 2001-12-11
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,595 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,595 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$1,595
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,190
• − Management: −$1,190
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $6,855
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,645
• After-tax cash flow: $5,462/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gowanda Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612390
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,777
• Composite: 34.71/100
• National rank: #5138
• State rank: #513 of 590 in NY

Livability — Perrysburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #880
• US rank: #17139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,019

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.33%
• Current HPI: 374.5823
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+49.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $44,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $47,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $49,900 UNYREIS
• 2001-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,595 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.