2200 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 5-C · Salem, OR 97317

$89,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 616 sqft · Other · 410 Days on market

Built 2025 Fair condition $146/sqft · 40% above area Est $64k · 40% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Fleetwood 1 bed, 1 bath home with 616sq. ft. This home has an open floor plan with lovely bay windows in the living room to bring in lots of natural light. The kitchen has a bar area with room for seating and stainless steel appliances including a dishwasher and built-in microwave. The bedroom is room with a nice closet and the bathroom has a walk-in shower. Outside you have a storage shed, heat pump and very low to almost no landscaping! To see more of this home, contact the community manager. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library and billiard room.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Storage shed
• Bar area

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BAY WINDOWS
• BAR AREA
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Miller Elementary School (361 students, 76% FRL); Houck Middle School (949 students, 74% FRL); North Salem High School (2,239 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 410 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 410 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.19%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,003
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 40.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $10,588
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $40,278
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97317

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,256 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $966/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $453	-5% $428	+0% $402	+5% $377	+10% $352
Rent	-10% $303	-5% $353	+0% $402	+5% $452	+10% $502
Rate	-1.0pp $448	-0.5pp $425	base $402	+0.5pp $379	+1.0pp $355

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$1,299	$1.41	16d	1	0.33mi
1569 Whitaker Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,299	$1.39	16d	1	0.71mi
5192 Caplinger Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,305	$1.41	16d	25	1.10mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,280	$1.33	16d	26	1.26mi
4433 Mahrt Ave SE Unit 4433-205 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	688	$1,225	$1.78	46d	1	1.41mi
143 Connecticut Ave SE Unit 143 Salem, OR	1.0	1.0	705	$950	$1.35	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 410 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 407 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 406 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 405 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 404 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 402 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 399 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 398 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 397 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 396 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 392 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 391 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 390 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 389 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 388 DOM
16. 2025-05-19
    status Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Beautiful Fleetwood 1 bed, 1 bath home with 616sq. ft. This home has an open floor plan with lovely bay windows in the living room to bring in lots of natural light. The kitchen has a bar area with room for seating and stainless steel appliances including a dishwasher and built-in microwave. The bedroom is room with a nice closet and the bathroom has a walk-in shower. Outside you have a storage shed, heat pump and very low to almost no landscaping! To see more of this home, contact the community manager. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library and billiard room.

17. 2025-05-17
    historical 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Beautiful Fleetwood 1 bed, 1 bath home with 616sq. ft. This home has an open floor plan with lovely bay windows in the living room to bring in lots of natural light. The kitchen has a bar area with room for seating and stainless steel appliances including a dishwasher and built-in microwave. The bedroom is room with a nice closet and the bathroom has a walk-in shower. Outside you have a storage shed, heat pump and very low to almost no landscaping! To see more of this home, contact the community manager. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library and billiard room.

18. 2025-05-05
    listed $89,900 Active 793-char remark

    Show marketing remark (793 chars)

    Beautiful Fleetwood 1 bed, 1 bath home with 616sq. ft. This home has an open floor plan with lovely bay windows in the living room to bring in lots of natural light. The kitchen has a bar area with room for seating and stainless steel appliances including a dishwasher and built-in microwave. The bedroom is room with a nice closet and the bathroom has a walk-in shower. Outside you have a storage shed, heat pump and very low to almost no landscaping! To see more of this home, contact the community manager. Sundial MHP is a beautiful 55+ community in the heart of the Willamette Valley. The community is pet-friendly and boasts a calendar of activities, a neighborhood atmosphere and an impressive lineup of social amenities such as a club house, indoor pool/spa, library and billiard room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $966 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $966 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$966
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,205
• − Management: −$1,205
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $3,589
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$861
• After-tax cash flow: $3,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 616 sq ft home is in fair condition with good kitchen and bathroom features. It needs significant landscaping and painting to improve its curb appeal and overall value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — Almost no landscaping, needs significant improvement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Improves home's appearance and value
• Both Landscaping and adding curb appeal features — Boosts both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Almost no landscaping, needs significant improvement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Improves home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Landscaping and adding curb appeal features — Boosts both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 25,966
• Household income: $84,393
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -471.73%
• Current HPI: 307.3264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-19 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-05 Listed $89,900 Zillow

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $966 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.