1235 Nan St · Brielle, NJ 08736

$849,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1973 10,018 sqft lot Est $838k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Desirable Ranch in Manasquan Shores! This beautifully maintained home offers one-level living w/ open floor plan designed for everyday comfort & entertaining. The kitchen features newer appliances, butcher block countertops & opens to a spacious family room with vaulted ceilings & gas fireplace. 4 bedrooms with custom closets provide space for family, guests, or a home office. The recently renovated full bath includes a double-sink vanity & custom tile work. Hardwood floors throughout create a move-in-ready space to enjoy. Step out to the private backyard and enjoy the large 2-level Azek deck, perfect for outdoor dining, entertaining or relaxing. Enjoy the best of th

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Newer appliances
• One level living

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the first level)
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Outdoor lighting; Window treatments and blinds/shades; Light fixtures
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $849k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-322/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $844k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $702k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $702k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.9% in Brielle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#138 in NJ, #3,641 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Wall Township Public School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #145 of 472 in NJ (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,025/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($174k/yr) (locally 65% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $510k; list at $849k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $702,494 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $837,864
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
704 Old Bridge Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,690 (-2%)	20mo	$770,000	$456	63
1203 Manito Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-4%)	9mo	$820,000	$495	60
100 Mohegan Rd	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,728 (+0%)	1mo	$1,600,000	$926	57
710 Schoolhouse Rd	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,903 (+10%)	16mo	$925,000	$486	48
802 Oak Rd	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,536 (-11%)	15mo	$735,000	$479	45
—	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,583 (-8%)	4mo	$345,000	$218	45
54 Manito Rd	0.64mi	4/1.5	1,641 (-5%)	22mo	$915,000	$558	44
1132 Hillcrest Path	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (+1%)	18mo	$842,500	$484	43
819 Rathjen Rd	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (+11%)	19mo	$1,150,000	$599	32
2531 Morningstar Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,924 (+12%)	14mo	$949,000	$493	31
1542 Harvest Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,891 (+10%)	18mo	$827,000	$437	30
—	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (-11%)	19mo	$275,000	$180	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-139,357
• Equity at exit: $126,589

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-123,846
• Equity at exit: $73,406

Cash invested: $237,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08736

• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,452
• Tax from tax record: −$771 /mo · $9,247/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,475
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,059

Max offer price $844,258

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $213	+0% $-27	+5% $-267	+10% $-507
Rent	-10% $-582	-5% $-304	+0% $-27	+5% $251	+10% $528
Rate	-1.0pp $401	-0.5pp $189	base $-27	+0.5pp $-247	+1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,250
• Closing costs: $25,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
619 Woodland Ave Brielle, NJ	4.0	2.5	1932	$15,000	$7.76	5d	1	0.64mi
608 Brielle Ave Brielle, NJ	4.0	2.5	2109	$5,000	$2.37	25d	1	0.97mi
265 E Virginia Ave Manasquan, NJ	4.0	2.5	1376	$4,500	$3.27	25d	1	1.08mi
94 Colby Ave Manasquan, NJ	3.0	2.0	2000	$25,000	$12.50	3d	1	1.39mi
108 Glimmer Glass Cir Manasquan, NJ	4.0	3.5	2207	$6,500	$2.95	0d	1	1.48mi
110 Curtis Pl Manasquan, NJ	3.0	1.0	1108	$3,000	$2.71	25d	1	1.49mi
67 N Farragut Ave Manasquan, NJ	3.0	2.0	1526	$16,000	$10.48	0d	1	1.49mi
370 E Main St Manasquan, NJ	3.0	1.5	1368	$16,000	$11.70	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   status $849,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $849,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $849,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $849,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $849,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 683-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $849,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,247 · $771/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,193 · $1,266/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,947/yr (+$496/mo · 64.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $84,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,557
• − Property taxes: −$9,247
• − Insurance: −$4,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,744
• − Management: −$6,744
• − Depreciation: −$24,698
• Taxable loss: −$14,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,585
• After-tax cash flow: $3,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wall Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416890
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $92,842
• Composite: 44.31/100
• National rank: #2831
• State rank: #145 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Brielle

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• City population: 18,016
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,223
• Household income: $174,097
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 65.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.96%
• Current HPI: 371.0208
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1564.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $849,000 MOMLS
• 2007-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $509,650 Public Records
• 1983-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records
• 1980-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 1978-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,247 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.