10471 Keuka Dr · Jacksonville, FL 32218

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1954 6,969 sqft lot Est $130k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Listing was keyed in for sales tracking only. Package deal of 3 properties. All tenant occupied. Sold strictly As is, where is.

Key facts

• Upgraded bathroom
• Large fenced yard
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• LARGE FENCED YARD
• UPGRADED BATHROOM
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Used for residential purposes
• Construction: Concrete construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fence; Few trees on lot; City street frontage; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bathroom with tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($676/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Highlands Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 475 students, 78% FRL); Highlands Middle School (math 31% / reading 21%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 697 students, 73% FRL); First Coast High School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #499 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,117 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 735 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,583 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,696
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10471 Keuka Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	8mo	$70,000	$104	93
10481 Pinehurst Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	11mo	$145,000	$216	88
10528 Wooster Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0	750 (+12%)	1mo	$145,000	$193	71
10635 Briarcliff Rd E	0.27mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	22mo	$82,000	$122	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-27,326
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-35,319
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32218

• Home prices YoY: -25.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 735
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,416 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,538/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,345

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $103	+0% $56	+5% $10	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $0	+0% $56	+5% $112	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $98	base $56	+0.5pp $14	+1.0pp $-30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1333 Dunn Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	576	$1,185	$2.06	3d	16	0.35mi
1601 Dunn Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	852	$1,282	$1.50	4d	12	0.46mi
11011 Harts Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$1,385	$1.32	3d	23	0.96mi
1000 Island Point Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,376	$1.45	4d	9	1.37mi
10535 Lem Turner Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$1,279	$1.26	4d	40	1.38mi
800 Broward Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$1,368	$1.33	3d	42	1.45mi
2445 Dunn Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,496	$1.76	3d	11	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-09
   listed $165,000 Active
2. 2025-11-06
   soldstatus $285,000
3. 2025-11-06
   soldstatus $285,000
4. 2025-10-21
   listed $70,000 Active 127-char remark

   Show marketing remark (127 chars)

   Listing was keyed in for sales tracking only. Package deal of 3 properties. All tenant occupied. Sold strictly As is, where is.

5. 2018-07-31
   soldstatus $42,000 Sold 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   This is a great property to get your portfolio started or to add to it. Newer HVAC, replacement windows and has a laundry room off the carport. Fully fenced yard. Tenant already in place on month to month basis at $650 a month but will consider signing new lease with new owner. Please try to give tenant 24 hour notice as she will let you in on the showing. Seller may consider holding financing with 35% down with qualified buyer.

6. 2018-07-14
   status Pending 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   This is a great property to get your portfolio started or to add to it. Newer HVAC, replacement windows and has a laundry room off the carport. Fully fenced yard. Tenant already in place on month to month basis at $650 a month but will consider signing new lease with new owner. Please try to give tenant 24 hour notice as she will let you in on the showing. Seller may consider holding financing with 35% down with qualified buyer.

7. 2018-05-29
   listed $49,900 Active 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   This is a great property to get your portfolio started or to add to it. Newer HVAC, replacement windows and has a laundry room off the carport. Fully fenced yard. Tenant already in place on month to month basis at $650 a month but will consider signing new lease with new owner. Please try to give tenant 24 hour notice as she will let you in on the showing. Seller may consider holding financing with 35% down with qualified buyer.

8. 2011-12-31
   listed $24,900
9. 2004-07-19
   soldstatus $41,000
10. 2004-06-11
    historical
11. 2004-06-10
    soldstatus $37,000
12. 2004-04-29
    listed $40,000
13. 2000-08-09
    soldstatus $48,000
14. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus $19,000
15. 1981-07-01
    soldstatus $14,888

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,538 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,538 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,538
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,359
• − Management: −$1,359
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$512
• After-tax cash flow: $1,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 72,905
• Household income: $69,638
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2289.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.73%
• Current HPI: 262.2329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.40%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1008.3% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $165,000 realMLS
• 2025-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2025-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-21 Listed $70,000 realMLS
• 2018-07-31 Sold (MLS) $42,000 realMLS
• 2018-07-14 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-05-29 Listed $49,900 realMLS
• 2011-12-31 Listed $24,900 realMLS
• 2004-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-11 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2004-06-10 Sold (MLS) $37,000 realMLS
• 2004-04-29 Listed $40,000 realMLS
• 2000-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records
• 1981-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,888 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,538 · +25.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.