12738 Montbrook Way · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$549,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2020 6,939 sqft lot $346/sqft · 9% below area Est $601k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained single-story gem, ideally situated on a desirable corner lot in one of Rancho Cordova's most sought-after neighborhoods. Built just six years ago, this move-in ready home offers the perfect combination of modern comfort, timeless style, and everyday convenience. Inside, you'll find a thoughtfully designed floor plan featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,587 square feet of bright, open living space that is perfect for both relaxing and entertaining. The home's clean, contemporary finishes and functional layout create an inviting atmosphere you'll love coming home to. Step outside to your own private retreat, where the side yard is adorn

Key facts

• Gala apple trees
• Meyer lemon tree
• Side yard

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SIDE YARD
• GALA APPLE TREES
• FUJI APPLE TREES
• MEYER LEMON TREE
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Garage with door opener and front-facing garage; Paved sidewalks with curb and gutter
• Utilities: 220-volt electric service; Public water with meter on site; Public sewer; Irrigation available; Photovoltaic system installed (power production type: photovoltaics; installed 2021)
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Residential property; Built in 2020; One story
• Construction: Tile roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Auto sprinkler front and rear

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Kitchen/family combo with breakfast area and pantry closet; Built-in electric oven; Gas cooktop; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (master on the ground floor)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower stall(s), double sinks, granite and walk-in closet; Other bath(s) with granite and tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Whole house fan; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: One-story layout; Great room / family room; Dual-pane full windows; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the ground floor with cabinets (inside room)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $549k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (46.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (44.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (46.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($533k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,912 (46.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.36%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $601,453
• List price: $549,000
• Delta: -8.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12717 Quantum Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+1%)	8mo	$540,000	$337	87
12838 Knightsbrook Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,603 (+1%)	6mo	$540,000	$337	80
4329 Tahoe Sedge St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,655 (+4%)	5mo	$550,000	$332	68
12823 Eagle Lake Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+8%)	2mo	$548,238	$319	67
12839 Eagle Lake Ave	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+8%)	4mo	$531,788	$309	64
4428 Canyon Coral Way	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,673 (+5%)	3mo	$579,990	$347	63
4413 Canyon Coral Way	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,665 (+5%)	5mo	$549,990	$330	63
4253 Paisleyshire Way	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+8%)	7mo	$540,388	$314	62
12855 Eagle Lake Ave	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+8%)	6mo	$549,388	$319	61
4405 Canyon Coral Way	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,665 (+5%)	8mo	$539,990	$324	61
4408 Canyon Coral Way	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,665 (+5%)	7mo	$555,490	$334	60
4396 Canyon Coral Way	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,665 (+5%)	7mo	$539,990	$324	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $203,597
• Equity at exit: $494,583

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $667,154
• Equity at exit: $1,066,586

Cash invested: $153,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,879
• Tax from tax record: −$765 /mo · $9,184/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $-1,455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,903

Max offer price $291,912

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,145	-5% $-1,300	+0% $-1,455	+5% $-1,611	+10% $-1,766
Rent	-10% $-1,697	-5% $-1,576	+0% $-1,455	+5% $-1,334	+10% $-1,214
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,179	-0.5pp $-1,316	base $-1,455	+0.5pp $-1,598	+1.0pp $-1,742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,250
• Closing costs: $16,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4328 Greenshank Cir Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,100	$1.72	44d	1	0.55mi
4143 Cahakia Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,795	$1.69	44d	1	0.88mi
12579 Bellmead Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,650	$1.65	3d	1	1.02mi
3686 Rockdale Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1880	$2,795	$1.49	8d	1	1.12mi
12153 Coal Creek Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,750	$1.44	15d	1	1.49mi
12636 Hereford Ave Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1941	$3,195	$1.65	2d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $549,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $549,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $549,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $549,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $549,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $549,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $549,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $549,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $549,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $549,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $549,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $549,000 Active 18 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,184 · $765/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,184 · $765/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,753
• − Property taxes: −$9,184
• − Insurance: −$2,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,938
• − Management: −$2,938
• − Depreciation: −$15,971
• Taxable loss: −$27,803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,673
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,184 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.