1015 N Winnebago St · Rockford, IL 61103

$99,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,337 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1900 4,356 sqft lot $75/sqft · 11% above area Est $90k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 5-bedroom, 2-bathroom 2-story home with a detached 1-car garage and plenty of room throughout! This home features new vinyl plank flooring throughout, offering a clean and updated feel. Refreshed kitchen with new countertops and stainless steel appliances. Two bedrooms are on the main floor and 4 are upstairs. One of the upper bedrooms has its own separate entrance. Additional features include 100 amp service and a new water heater in 2025. Conveniently located just minutes from downtown Rockford, this property offers great space, versatility and potential!

Key facts

• Separate entrance
• New water heater
• 100 amp service

Tags

• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• 100 AMP SERVICE
• NEW WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual tax listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories
• Construction: House construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Public water; Public sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator; Gas water heater; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $682 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: R K Welsh Elem School (math 7% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,719 of 2,056 statewide, top 84%, 435 students, 0% FRL); West Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #627 of 665 statewide, top 95%, 849 students, 0% FRL); Guilford High School (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #345 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 2,071 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.25%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,990
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 11.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1015 N Winnebago St	0.00mi	5/2.0	1,337 (0%)	1mo	$99,900	$75	99
1021 N Rockton Ave	0.13mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	5mo	$90,000	$72	69
529 Summer St	0.43mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (+0%)	4mo	$130,000	$97	69
928 North Ave	0.19mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,482 (+11%)	1mo	$149,900	$101	63
928 North Ave	0.19mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,482 (+11%)	1mo	$149,900	$101	63
810 N Horsman St	0.33mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	9mo	$75,000	$60	57
728 N Winnebago St	0.27mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	13mo	$65,000	$52	56
920 Woodlawn Ave	0.15mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (+8%)	22mo	$77,000	$53	53
1618 Auburn St	0.53mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (+0%)	17mo	$85,000	$63	52
804 N Rockton Ave	0.29mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,508 (+13%)	14mo	$100,000	$66	44
1925 Carney Ave	0.64mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,246 (-7%)	17mo	$94,500	$76	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $36,129
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $127,850
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61103

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,683 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $985/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $820

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
728 N Winnebago St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	13d	1	0.26mi
1146 Fairview Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1344	$1,250	$0.93	21d	1	0.74mi
303 Forest Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	44d	1	0.88mi
210 Irving Ave Rockford, IL	5.0	1.0	1202	$1,850	$1.54	44d	1	1.11mi
207 N Central Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1296	$1,500	$1.16	13d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 572-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $99,900 Active 572-char remark
3. 2025-02-08
   historical
4. 2024-11-29
   listed Active
5. 1998-03-27
   soldstatus $21,000
6. 1997-08-20
   soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $985 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,626 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$641/yr (+$53/mo · 65.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$985
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $6,976
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $6,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 22,869
• Household income: $51,161
• Rent vs Own: 48.4% rent · 51.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1402.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 25% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.02%
• Current HPI: 215.8559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.11%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+375.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $99,900 NWIAR
• 2026-05-05 Pending — NWIAR
• 2026-04-30 Listed $99,900 NWIAR
• 2025-02-08 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-29 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 1997-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $985 · +73.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.