764 Chestnut Dr · Gatlinburg, TN 37738

$639,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,668 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 2023 0.54 ac lot $383/sqft · 31% below area Est $867k · 26% under $41/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming Mountain Modern 2-bedroom Chalet with views. Nestled in the Smokies, this cozy cabin offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. This property is charming with large windows on each level to capture the mountain scenery and private decks to enjoy the Smoky Mountain setting. Main level has a living space and a full kitchen and half bath. Upstairs has a beautiful master suite with sitting area, Upstairs also has a spacious Full bathroom with walk in tile shower. Down stairs has a private master suite with a full tub/shower combo. There is a small bonus room turned into a childs sleeping area. Each level offers private deck space and the main level deck has a four person hot tub. This property has so much to offer! Located just minutes from downtown Gatlinburg, Ober Mountain, and the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, this chalet is perfect for a vacation home or short term investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Private decks
• Ober mountain

Tags

• MOUNTAIN MODERN CHALET
• LARGE WINDOWS
• PRIVATE DECKS
• OBER MOUNTAIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $639k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $500k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.3% in Gatlinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#27 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 696 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($562k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $499,500 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.66%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $866,633
• List price: $639,000
• Delta: -26.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
613 Sunset Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,800 (+8%)	3mo	$730,000	$406	74
1013 Elm Rd	0.31mi	2/2.5	1,715 (+3%)	6mo	$875,000	$510	74
1013 Elm Rd	0.31mi	2/2.5	1,715 (+3%)	6mo	$875,000	$510	74
619 Jefferson Rd	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,635 (-2%)	11mo	$286,550	$175	58
1108 Circle Pt	0.55mi	2/2.5	1,520 (-9%)	10mo	$450,000	$296	49
807 Wattle Blossom Way	0.43mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,877 (+12%)	7mo	$435,000	$232	45
1013 Street Of Dreams	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (+10%)	10mo	$670,000	$364	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-97,552
• Equity at exit: $95,277

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-77,990
• Equity at exit: $55,249

Cash invested: $178,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37738

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Active inventory: 696
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,273/yr
• Insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,049
• Net cashflow: $98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,870

Max offer price $639,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $460	-5% $279	+0% $98	+5% $-82	+10% $-263
Rent	-10% $-296	-5% $-99	+0% $98	+5% $296	+10% $493
Rate	-1.0pp $420	-0.5pp $261	base $98	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,750
• Closing costs: $19,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 E Holly Ridge Rd Gatlinburg, TN	3.0	3.0	1657	$4,995	$3.01	24d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $639,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $639,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $649,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $649,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $649,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $649,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $649,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $649,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $649,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $649,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $649,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $649,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $649,000 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    price $649,000 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this charming Mountain Modern 2-bedroom Chalet with views. Nestled in the Smokies, this cozy cabin offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. This property is charming with large windows on each level to capture the mountain scenery and private decks to enjoy the Smoky Mountain setting. Located just minutes from downtown Gatlinburg, Ober Mountain, and the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, this chalet is perfect for a vacation home or short term investment opportunity.

18. 2026-05-09
    price $649,000 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this charming Mountain Modern 2-bedroom Chalet with views. Nestled in the Smokies, this cozy cabin offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. This property is charming with large windows on each level to capture the mountain scenery and private decks to enjoy the Smoky Mountain setting. Located just minutes from downtown Gatlinburg, Ober Mountain, and the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, this chalet is perfect for a vacation home or short term investment opportunity.

19. 2026-04-12
    price $669,000 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this charming Mountain Modern 2-bedroom Chalet with views. Nestled in the Smokies, this cozy cabin offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. This property is charming with large windows on each level to capture the mountain scenery and private decks to enjoy the Smoky Mountain setting. Located just minutes from downtown Gatlinburg, Ober Mountain, and the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, this chalet is perfect for a vacation home or short term investment opportunity.

20. 2026-04-12
    price $669,000 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this charming Mountain Modern 2-bedroom Chalet with views. Nestled in the Smokies, this cozy cabin offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. This property is charming with large windows on each level to capture the mountain scenery and private decks to enjoy the Smoky Mountain setting. Located just minutes from downtown Gatlinburg, Ober Mountain, and the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, this chalet is perfect for a vacation home or short term investment opportunity.

21. 2026-02-10
    listed $699,000 Active 943-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this charming Mountain Modern 2-bedroom Chalet with views. Nestled in the Smokies, this cozy cabin offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. This property is charming with large windows on each level to capture the mountain scenery and private decks to enjoy the Smoky Mountain setting. Located just minutes from downtown Gatlinburg, Ober Mountain, and the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, this chalet is perfect for a vacation home or short term investment opportunity.

22. 2026-02-10
    listed $699,000 Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Welcome to this charming Mountain Modern 2-bedroom Chalet with views. Nestled in the Smokies, this cozy cabin offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. This property is charming with large windows on each level to capture the mountain scenery and private decks to enjoy the Smoky Mountain setting. Located just minutes from downtown Gatlinburg, Ober Mountain, and the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, this chalet is perfect for a vacation home or short term investment opportunity.

23. 2024-03-11
    historical
24. 2024-02-24
    price $780,000
25. 2024-01-02
    price $790,000
26. 2023-12-04
    price $794,000
27. 2023-11-08
    listed $799,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,273 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,537 · $378/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,264/yr (+$189/mo · 99.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,794
• − Property taxes: −$2,273
• − Insurance: −$3,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,795
• − Management: −$4,795
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$18,589
• Taxable loss: −$9,993
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,398
• After-tax cash flow: $3,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Gatlinburg

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #27
• US rank: #5524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,269

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.02%
• Current HPI: 296.203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $649,000 GSMAR
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $649,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $669,000 GSMAR
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $669,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $699,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $699,000 GSMAR
• 2024-03-11 Delisted — GSMAR
• 2024-02-24 Price Changed $780,000 GSMAR
• 2024-01-02 Price Changed $790,000 GSMAR
• 2023-12-04 Price Changed $794,000 GSMAR
• 2023-11-08 Listed $799,000 GSMAR

Property tax history

+28.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,273 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.