509 E 4th St · Burkburnett, TX 76354

$93,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1930 $81/sqft · 20% below area Est $116k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 2 bed, 1.5 bath house featuring many modern updates throughout. Spacious living area, beautifully redone bathrooms, roomy kitchen, and detached garage for parking or extra storage space. Currently rented for of $950 per month.

Key facts

• Built 1930
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $93k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($946/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $93k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#345 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Burkburnett ISD (town): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #529 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Overton Ray El (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 527 students, 56% FRL); Burkburnett Middle (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 736 students, 53% FRL); Burkburnett H S (math 39% / reading 40%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 834 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $643 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,420 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.63%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,755
• List price: $93,000
• Delta: -19.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-9,941
• Equity at exit: $13,867

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-1,758
• Equity at exit: $8,041

Cash invested: $26,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76354

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$488
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,141/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $998

Max offer price $93,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $105	+0% $79	+5% $53	+10% $26
Rent	-10% $-8	-5% $36	+0% $79	+5% $122	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $103	base $79	+0.5pp $55	+1.0pp $30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,250
• Closing costs: $2,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
323 E 6th St Burkburnett, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	46d	1	0.22mi
709 E 1st St Burkburnett, TX	3.0	1.0	1162	$1,095	$0.94	46d	1	0.26mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $93,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $93,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $93,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $93,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $93,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $93,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $93,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $93,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $93,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $93,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $93,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $93,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $93,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $93,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $93,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $93,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $93,000 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $93,000 Active 50 DOM
19. 2026-05-04
    price $103,500 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    Spacious 2 bed, 1.5 bath house featuring many modern updates throughout. Spacious living area, beautifully redone bathrooms, roomy kitchen, and detached garage for parking or extra storage space. Currently rented for of $950 per month.

20. 2026-04-22
    price $112,500 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    Spacious 2 bed, 1.5 bath house featuring many modern updates throughout. Spacious living area, beautifully redone bathrooms, roomy kitchen, and detached garage for parking or extra storage space. Currently rented for of $950 per month.

21. 2026-04-10
    listed $115,000 Active 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    Spacious 2 bed, 1.5 bath house featuring many modern updates throughout. Spacious living area, beautifully redone bathrooms, roomy kitchen, and detached garage for parking or extra storage space. Currently rented for of $950 per month.

22. 2025-10-23
    historical $995
23. 2025-10-09
    listed $995
24. 2025-05-29
    price $120,000
25. 2025-05-19
    price $130,000
26. 2025-03-19
    price $135,000
27. 2025-01-24
    price $139,000
28. 2025-01-08
    listed $149,000 Active
29. 2024-05-30
    soldstatus
30. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus
31. 2024-05-08
    listed $55,000
32. 2010-06-02
    soldstatus
33. 2008-03-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,141 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,141 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,209
• − Property taxes: −$3,141
• − Insurance: −$465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,054
• − Management: −$1,054
• − Depreciation: −$2,705
• Taxable loss: −$458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$110
• After-tax cash flow: $1,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burkburnett ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812120
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,346
• Composite: 29.44/100
• National rank: #6519
• State rank: #529 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burkburnett

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #7548

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burkburnett, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,822

Population outlook (Wichita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,638 people
• By 2030: 128,366 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 124,466 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 120,499 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 113,884 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 101,818 · -21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Iranian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wichita

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.5% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.1 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+47.1 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.48%
• Current HPI: 166.3827
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+88.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $103,500 WFAOR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $112,500 WFAOR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $115,000 WFAOR
• 2025-10-23 Rental Removed $995 RENTEC
• 2025-10-09 Listed for Rent $995 RENTEC
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $120,000 WFAOR
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $130,000 WFAOR
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $135,000 WFAOR
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $139,000 WFAOR
• 2025-01-08 Listed $149,000 WFAOR
• 2024-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2024-05-08 Listed $55,000 WFAOR
• 2010-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,141 · +81.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.