23 Bahia Circle Trl · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1983 $183/sqft · at area comps Est $171k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

It has a new roof, new central a/c, new paint outside, new garage door, perfect for retired couple , snowbirds, family starting out.

Key facts

• New central a/c
• New paint outside
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW CENTRAL A/C
• NEW PAINT OUTSIDE
• NEW GARAGE DOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($80/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Silver Springs Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, schools F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 674 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $165k implies a 408% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,949 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,328
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -3.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $43,571
• Equity at exit: $103,023

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $121,070
• Equity at exit: $186,224

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,379 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,789/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,371

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $53	+0% $7	+5% $-40	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-48	+0% $7	+5% $61	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $49	base $7	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
544 Silver Crse Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,395	$1.54	14d	1	0.29mi
532 Bahia Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1027	$1,300	$1.27	21d	1	0.52mi
549 Fairways Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,200	$1.12	21d	1	0.54mi
576 Fairways Ln Unit M104 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	837	$1,250	$1.49	21d	1	0.56mi
510 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,299	$1.30	21d	1	0.58mi
561 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1031	$1,250	$1.21	21d	1	0.58mi
548 Fairways Cir Unit C102 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	21d	1	0.58mi
162 Bahia Terrace Dr Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,375	$1.40	21d	1	0.59mi
593 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1031	$1,200	$1.16	21d	1	0.59mi
520 Fairways Cir Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1027	$1,100	$1.07	21d	1	0.59mi
633 Silver Pass Unit B Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,500	$1.40	21d	1	0.60mi
567 Midway Trak Unit H201 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1029	$1,350	$1.31	14d	1	0.61mi
454 Fairways Cir Unit B204 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	837	$1,289	$1.54	21d	1	0.63mi
454 Fairways Cir Unit B203 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	21d	1	0.63mi
454 Fairways Cir Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	837	$1,200	$1.43	21d	1	0.63mi
5 Cedar Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,750	$1.64	21d	1	0.69mi
54 Pine Trak Unit 104F Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$1,300	$1.56	21d	1	0.76mi
58 Pine Trak Unit 104D Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$1,050	$1.26	21d	1	0.80mi
62 Pine Trak Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	832	$1,250	$1.50	21d	1	0.85mi
681 Midway Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	14d	1	0.88mi
681 Midway Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	21d	1	0.88mi
7455 Midway Ter Unit K Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,249	$1.38	21d	1	0.89mi
608 Midway Dr Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1054	$1,500	$1.42	14d	1	0.91mi
12 Spring Loop Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	14d	1	1.04mi
7817 Midway Drive Ter Unit A103 Ocala, FL	1.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	21d	1	1.04mi
7215 Midway Ter Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$1,175	$1.21	21d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $165,000 Active 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    It has a new roof, new central a/c, new paint outside, new garage door, perfect for retired couple , snowbirds, family starting out.

16. 2026-04-20
    listed $165,000 Active 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    It has a new roof, new central a/c, new paint outside, new garage door, perfect for retired couple , snowbirds, family starting out.

17. 2021-11-16
    historical
18. 2021-10-25
    listed $139,000 Active
19. 2016-01-06
    soldstatus $32,500
20. 2010-11-10
    soldstatus $54,900
21. 2010-09-23
    soldstatus $22,501
22. 2010-05-28
    listed $24,900
23. 2000-06-14
    soldstatus $46,500
24. 1984-05-01
    soldstatus $63,300
25. 1983-01-01
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,789 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,789 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,789
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,324
• − Management: −$1,324
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$660
• After-tax cash flow: $741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2650.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $165,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-20 Listed $165,000 Fizber.com
• 2021-11-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-25 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records
• 2010-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records
• 2010-09-23 Sold (MLS) $22,501 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-28 Listed $24,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 1984-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,300 Public Records
• 1983-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,789 · +32.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.