7510 Winning Colors Pl · Brandermill, VA 23112

$365,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1992 0.28 ac lot $212/sqft · 5% below area Est $385k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price drop adds this to a search for under 225! A corner lot and floor plan that makes living here so convenient!! Love the attached garage, paved drive, excellent schools, easy care laminate floors & much more - fenced back yard, storage shed, generator, spacious back deck! This home is move in ready - sparkly clean, many upgrades - granite counter tops in kitchen, ceiling fans throughout - Easy to show -

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 space and garage door opener; Paved driveway with off-street and oversized parking; two parking spaces total; Direct access; driveway provides additional storage area
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Built with frame construction and vinyl siding; Drywall interior; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Shed/storage; Paved driveway; Fenced backyard with picket fencing; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooking; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Second-floor full bath with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Primary bedroom with private bath; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Brandermill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#94 in VA, #3,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 492 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 61% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $226k; list at $365k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,470 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,961
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -5.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7506 Winning Colors Ct	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,812 (+5%)	0mo	$385,000	$212	84
13624 Lucky Debonair Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,601 (-7%)	3mo	$368,000	$230	76
13702 Nashua Ter	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,704 (-1%)	2mo	$405,000	$238	73
13631 Decidedly Ct	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,768 (+3%)	1mo	$358,000	$202	73
7303 Native Dancer Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,798 (+4%)	2mo	$360,000	$200	72
13642 Decidedly Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,656 (-4%)	4mo	$380,000	$229	66
13805 Buck Rub Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (-4%)	1mo	$400,000	$241	64
13925 Buck Rub Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-7%)	3mo	$392,600	$245	56
14003 Buck Rub Cir	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,879 (+9%)	1mo	$405,000	$216	50
14001 Palomino Way	0.63mi	4/2.5	1,958 (+14%)	3mo	$445,000	$227	46
7104 Deer Run Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,526 (-12%)	2mo	$355,000	$233	43
7018 Whistlers Cove Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-12%)	4mo	$317,000	$210	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-73,205
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-87,349
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23112

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 492
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,685 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,930/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,924

Max offer price $331,537

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-86	+0% $-189	+5% $-293	+10% $-396
Rent	-10% $-402	-5% $-295	+0% $-189	+5% $-83	+10% $23
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-97	base $-189	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7516 Flag Tail Dr Midlothian, VA	3.0	2.0	1684	$2,395	$1.42	4d	1	0.68mi
13364 Diamond Ridge Dr Midlothian, VA	3.0	2.5	2012	$2,500	$1.24	4d	1	1.26mi
14318 Forest Row Trl Midlothian, VA	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,895	$1.32	4d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Coming Soon 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    historical $365,000 204-char remark
16. 2018-09-26
    soldstatus $226,000 Closed 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Price drop adds this to a search for under 225! A corner lot and floor plan that makes living here so convenient!! Love the attached garage, paved drive, excellent schools, easy care laminate floors & much more - fenced back yard, storage shed, generator, spacious back deck! This home is move in ready - sparkly clean, many upgrades - granite counter tops in kitchen, ceiling fans throughout - Easy to show -

17. 2018-09-26
    soldstatus $225,900

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Price drop adds this to a search for under 225! A corner lot and floor plan that makes living here so convenient!! Love the attached garage, paved drive, excellent schools, easy care laminate floors & much more - fenced back yard, storage shed, generator, spacious back deck! This home is move in ready - sparkly clean, many upgrades - granite counter tops in kitchen, ceiling fans throughout - Easy to show -

18. 2018-08-11
    status Pending 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Price drop adds this to a search for under 225! A corner lot and floor plan that makes living here so convenient!! Love the attached garage, paved drive, excellent schools, easy care laminate floors & much more - fenced back yard, storage shed, generator, spacious back deck! This home is move in ready - sparkly clean, many upgrades - granite counter tops in kitchen, ceiling fans throughout - Easy to show -

19. 2018-06-29
    price $223,900 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Price drop adds this to a search for under 225! A corner lot and floor plan that makes living here so convenient!! Love the attached garage, paved drive, excellent schools, easy care laminate floors & much more - fenced back yard, storage shed, generator, spacious back deck! This home is move in ready - sparkly clean, many upgrades - granite counter tops in kitchen, ceiling fans throughout - Easy to show -

20. 2018-06-10
    listed $227,000 Active 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Price drop adds this to a search for under 225! A corner lot and floor plan that makes living here so convenient!! Love the attached garage, paved drive, excellent schools, easy care laminate floors & much more - fenced back yard, storage shed, generator, spacious back deck! This home is move in ready - sparkly clean, many upgrades - granite counter tops in kitchen, ceiling fans throughout - Easy to show -

21. 2016-10-14
    soldstatus $213,900
22. 2016-10-13
    soldstatus $213,900 Closed

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Plenty of TLC is reflected in this gorgeous 4 bedrooms, 2 and a half bath home. Welcome home to 7510 Winning Color Place. Nestled on a cul-de-sac lot this home features landscaped yard with decorative fence, private backyard with deck, and detached storage building. Inside features wood floors, open floor plan, spacious kitchen, and lots of upgrades. In a wonderful neighborhood and convenient to fine dining, places of worship, fitness centers and more

23. 2016-09-01
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Plenty of TLC is reflected in this gorgeous 4 bedrooms, 2 and a half bath home. Welcome home to 7510 Winning Color Place. Nestled on a cul-de-sac lot this home features landscaped yard with decorative fence, private backyard with deck, and detached storage building. Inside features wood floors, open floor plan, spacious kitchen, and lots of upgrades. In a wonderful neighborhood and convenient to fine dining, places of worship, fitness centers and more

24. 2016-08-25
    listed $215,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (455 chars)

    Plenty of TLC is reflected in this gorgeous 4 bedrooms, 2 and a half bath home. Welcome home to 7510 Winning Color Place. Nestled on a cul-de-sac lot this home features landscaped yard with decorative fence, private backyard with deck, and detached storage building. Inside features wood floors, open floor plan, spacious kitchen, and lots of upgrades. In a wonderful neighborhood and convenient to fine dining, places of worship, fitness centers and more

25. 2009-05-22
    soldstatus $211,500
26. 2009-05-21
    soldstatus $205,000
27. 2009-05-21
    soldstatus $205,000
28. 2009-03-04
    listed $209,950
29. 2009-03-04
    listed $209,950
30. 2003-09-29
    soldstatus $157,950
31. 2003-09-25
    soldstatus $157,950
32. 2003-09-25
    soldstatus $157,950
33. 2003-07-27
    listed $157,950
34. 2003-07-27
    listed $157,950
35. 1992-06-01
    soldstatus $90,500
36. 1991-12-04
    soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,930 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,993 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$63/yr (+$5/mo · 2.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$2,930
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,577
• − Management: −$2,577
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$8,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,102
• After-tax cash flow: $-171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brandermill

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #3055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 56,364
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 57,016
• Household income: $116,465
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.87%
• Current HPI: 277.4841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+2254.8% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $365,000 CVRMLS
• 2018-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $225,900 Public Records
• 2018-09-26 Sold (MLS) $226,000 CVRMLS
• 2018-08-11 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2018-06-29 Price Changed $223,900 CVRMLS
• 2018-06-10 Listed $227,000 CVRMLS
• 2016-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $213,900 Public Records
• 2016-10-13 Sold (MLS) $213,900 CVRMLS
• 2016-09-01 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2016-08-25 Listed $215,900 CVRMLS
• 2009-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $211,500 Public Records
• 2009-05-21 Sold (MLS) $205,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-05-21 Sold (MLS) $205,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-03-04 Listed $209,950 CVRMLS
• 2009-03-04 Listed $209,950 CVRMLS
• 2003-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $157,950 Public Records
• 2003-09-25 Sold (MLS) $157,950 CVRMLS
• 2003-09-25 Sold (MLS) $157,950 CVRMLS
• 2003-07-27 Listed $157,950 CVRMLS
• 2003-07-27 Listed $157,950 CVRMLS
• 1992-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,500 Public Records
• 1991-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,930 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.