12023 Belle Ct · Tomball, TX 77362

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2003 5,440 sqft lot $190/sqft · at area comps Est $246k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

No back yard neighbors! Home features well-designed split floor plan, wood laminate flooring, new carpet. Generous kitchen open to family room & offers gas appliances, plenty of cabinets & counter space. Master bath has double sinks, separate tub & shower. Fenced backyard with patio. Garage has built in workbench!

Key facts

• 5,440 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2003

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Decker Oaks HOA (annual fee $504)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story (first-floor living)
• Construction: Built in 2003; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (18 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (13 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (13 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Soaking tub; Separate shower; Combination tub/shower; Kitchen/dining combo; Low-E (energy efficient) windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-632/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Decker Prairie El (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 40% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tomball ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask is 99900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,321 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,548
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: 1.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11726 Elizabeth Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-8%)	5mo	$223,000	$183	73
32002 Sue Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+11%)	6mo	$260,000	$178	68
12035 Fairquarter Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+8%)	1mo	$240,000	$170	63
28411 Red Fox Ln	0.52mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,310 (-0%)	7mo	$210,000	$160	62
12222 Estelle Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+11%)	11mo	$250,000	$171	59
32126 Decker Oaks Dr E	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+9%)	22mo	$224,900	$157	58
12130 Clara Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+11%)	21mo	$255,000	$174	54
12130 Estelle Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+11%)	24mo	$255,000	$174	51
28218 Autumn Ln	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-9%)	12mo	$135,000	$113	48
32016 S Wiggins St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+13%)	3mo	$275,000	$185	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,815
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-42,273
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77362

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,558/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,220

Max offer price $240,701

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $18	+0% $-53	+5% $-123	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-223	-5% $-138	+0% $-53	+5% $32	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $11	base $-53	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-09
   listed $250 Active 1002-char remark
2. 2026-05-02
   historical $250 1002-char remark
3. 2026-05-02
   price $250,000 1002-char remark
4. 2017-03-01
   soldstatus
5. 2017-02-28
   soldstatus Sold 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   No back yard neighbors! Home features well-designed split floor plan, wood laminate flooring, new carpet. Generous kitchen open to family room & offers gas appliances, plenty of cabinets & counter space. Master bath has double sinks, separate tub & shower. Fenced backyard with patio. Garage has built in workbench!

6. 2017-02-08
   status Pending 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   No back yard neighbors! Home features well-designed split floor plan, wood laminate flooring, new carpet. Generous kitchen open to family room & offers gas appliances, plenty of cabinets & counter space. Master bath has double sinks, separate tub & shower. Fenced backyard with patio. Garage has built in workbench!

7. 2017-01-31
   status Option Pending 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   No back yard neighbors! Home features well-designed split floor plan, wood laminate flooring, new carpet. Generous kitchen open to family room & offers gas appliances, plenty of cabinets & counter space. Master bath has double sinks, separate tub & shower. Fenced backyard with patio. Garage has built in workbench!

8. 2017-01-25
   listed $142,500 Active 333-char remark

   Show marketing remark (333 chars)

   No back yard neighbors! Home features well-designed split floor plan, wood laminate flooring, new carpet. Generous kitchen open to family room & offers gas appliances, plenty of cabinets & counter space. Master bath has double sinks, separate tub & shower. Fenced backyard with patio. Garage has built in workbench!

9. 2009-09-29
   soldstatus
10. 2009-09-25
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    DARLING 3 BEDROOM SPLIT PLAN IN GREAT CONDITION WITH FRESH PAINT THROUGHOUT AND VERY CLEAN! KITCHEN HAS ABUNDANT CABINETS, GAS RANGE AND IS OPEN TO FAMILY ROOM + SUNNY BREAKFAST AREA. MASTER BATH W/JETTED TUB, SEPARATE SHOWER, DOUBLE SINKS AND WALK-IN CLOSET. 2'' BLINDS THROUGHOUT LARGE, PRIVATE BACKYARD WITH NO VISIBLE NEIGHBORS BEHIND.CONVENIENT LOCATION W/QUICK ACCESS TO BELTWAY 8, HWY 290, I-45, AIRPORT, AND TO TOMBALL OR MAGNOLIA. NO MUD TAXES! QUCK CLOSE AVAILABLE!

11. 2009-08-31
    historical

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    DARLING 3 BEDROOM SPLIT PLAN IN GREAT CONDITION WITH FRESH PAINT THROUGHOUT AND VERY CLEAN! KITCHEN HAS ABUNDANT CABINETS, GAS RANGE AND IS OPEN TO FAMILY ROOM + SUNNY BREAKFAST AREA. MASTER BATH W/JETTED TUB, SEPARATE SHOWER, DOUBLE SINKS AND WALK-IN CLOSET. 2'' BLINDS THROUGHOUT LARGE, PRIVATE BACKYARD WITH NO VISIBLE NEIGHBORS BEHIND.CONVENIENT LOCATION W/QUICK ACCESS TO BELTWAY 8, HWY 290, I-45, AIRPORT, AND TO TOMBALL OR MAGNOLIA. NO MUD TAXES! QUCK CLOSE AVAILABLE!

12. 2009-08-11
    listed $112,000

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    DARLING 3 BEDROOM SPLIT PLAN IN GREAT CONDITION WITH FRESH PAINT THROUGHOUT AND VERY CLEAN! KITCHEN HAS ABUNDANT CABINETS, GAS RANGE AND IS OPEN TO FAMILY ROOM + SUNNY BREAKFAST AREA. MASTER BATH W/JETTED TUB, SEPARATE SHOWER, DOUBLE SINKS AND WALK-IN CLOSET. 2'' BLINDS THROUGHOUT LARGE, PRIVATE BACKYARD WITH NO VISIBLE NEIGHBORS BEHIND.CONVENIENT LOCATION W/QUICK ACCESS TO BELTWAY 8, HWY 290, I-45, AIRPORT, AND TO TOMBALL OR MAGNOLIA. NO MUD TAXES! QUCK CLOSE AVAILABLE!

13. 2009-05-29
    soldstatus
14. 2007-08-24
    historical
15. 2007-07-27
    listed $117,000
16. 2006-01-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,558 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,017/yr (+$85/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,558
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,172
• After-tax cash flow: $540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 113,991
• Population (ZIP): 7,474

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.65%
• Current HPI: 284.6412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+113.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $250 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Coming Soon $250 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2017-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-02-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-02-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-01-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-01-25 Listed $142,500 HARMLS
• 2009-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-09-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-08-11 Listed $112,000 HARMLS
• 2009-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-07-27 Listed $117,000 HARMLS
• 2006-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,558 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.