104 4th St · Graford, TX 76449

$235,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2025 Good condition 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand-new Champion Homes doublewide manufactured home featuring a split 4-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan, situated on one acre in the quaint community of Oran, TX! The water well includes a new well house, and the owner is installing a water filtration system in the utility room. The primary suite offers an ensuite bath with dual sinks and a separate shower. Kitchen appliances include a refrigerator, dishwasher, and built-in oven with microwave. The open-concept living area features a spacious kitchen island, plus a separate utility room for added convenience. Enjoy the best of country living while staying close to it all—just 7 miles from Graford, less than 20 miles from Possum Kingdom Lake, 15 miles to downtown Mineral Wells, and only 30 miles to central Weatherford. Imagine quiet evenings under the stars, weekends at the lake, and the freedom of rural living without being far from shopping and dining. Opportunities like this don’t come along often—schedule your showing today and start planning your country escape!

Key facts

• Water well
• Quaint community
• New well house

Tags

• WATER WELL
• NEW WELL HOUSE
• WATER FILTRATION SYSTEM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• QUAINT COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $950 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 1.4% in Graford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#856 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, crime F.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Graford School (math 37% / reading 42%, 321 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 466 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $206,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.32%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $22,321
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $96,992
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76449

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,001 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,093/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $950

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,799

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,083	-5% $1,016	+0% $950	+5% $883	+10% $817
Rent	-10% $712	-5% $831	+0% $950	+5% $1,068	+10% $1,187
Rate	-1.0pp $1,068	-0.5pp $1,009	base $950	+0.5pp $889	+1.0pp $827

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $235,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $235,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $235,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $235,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 101 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 100 DOM
19. 2026-05-06
    price $235,000 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    Brand-new Champion Homes doublewide manufactured home featuring a split 4-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan, situated on one acre in the quaint community of Oran, TX! The water well includes a new well house, and the owner is installing a water filtration system in the utility room. The primary suite offers an ensuite bath with dual sinks and a separate shower. Kitchen appliances include a refrigerator, dishwasher, and built-in oven with microwave. The open-concept living area features a spacious kitchen island, plus a separate utility room for added convenience. Enjoy the best of country living while staying close to it all—just 7 miles from Graford, less than 20 miles from Possum Kingdom Lake, 15 miles to downtown Mineral Wells, and only 30 miles to central Weatherford. Imagine quiet evenings under the stars, weekends at the lake, and the freedom of rural living without being far from shopping and dining. Opportunities like this don’t come along often—schedule your showing today and start planning your country escape!

20. 2026-03-30
    price $255,000 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    Brand-new Champion Homes doublewide manufactured home featuring a split 4-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan, situated on one acre in the quaint community of Oran, TX! The water well includes a new well house, and the owner is installing a water filtration system in the utility room. The primary suite offers an ensuite bath with dual sinks and a separate shower. Kitchen appliances include a refrigerator, dishwasher, and built-in oven with microwave. The open-concept living area features a spacious kitchen island, plus a separate utility room for added convenience. Enjoy the best of country living while staying close to it all—just 7 miles from Graford, less than 20 miles from Possum Kingdom Lake, 15 miles to downtown Mineral Wells, and only 30 miles to central Weatherford. Imagine quiet evenings under the stars, weekends at the lake, and the freedom of rural living without being far from shopping and dining. Opportunities like this don’t come along often—schedule your showing today and start planning your country escape!

21. 2026-02-19
    listed $265,000 Active 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    Brand-new Champion Homes doublewide manufactured home featuring a split 4-bedroom, 2-bath floor plan, situated on one acre in the quaint community of Oran, TX! The water well includes a new well house, and the owner is installing a water filtration system in the utility room. The primary suite offers an ensuite bath with dual sinks and a separate shower. Kitchen appliances include a refrigerator, dishwasher, and built-in oven with microwave. The open-concept living area features a spacious kitchen island, plus a separate utility room for added convenience. Enjoy the best of country living while staying close to it all—just 7 miles from Graford, less than 20 miles from Possum Kingdom Lake, 15 miles to downtown Mineral Wells, and only 30 miles to central Weatherford. Imagine quiet evenings under the stars, weekends at the lake, and the freedom of rural living without being far from shopping and dining. Opportunities like this don’t come along often—schedule your showing today and start planning your country escape!

22. 2025-12-26
    historical
23. 2025-11-11
    status Active
24. 2025-08-22
    listed $80,000 Active
25. 2023-05-08
    historical
26. 2023-01-26
    price $125,000
27. 2022-12-23
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,093 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,207/yr (+$267/mo · 293.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,093
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,881
• − Management: −$2,881
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $7,984
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,916
• After-tax cash flow: $9,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand-new mobile home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with minimal updates required to enhance its curb appeal and safety features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal.
• Both Install a security system — Enhances safety and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal. ↑
• Both Install a security system — Enhances safety and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graford

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #15394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,157

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.53%
• Current HPI: 241.6435
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+46.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $255,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-11 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $80,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-01-26 Price Changed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-23 Listed $160,000 NTREIS