2349 Tall Oak Rd · Oakland, SC 29154

$195,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1977 0.29 ac lot Est $197k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

EXCEPTIONALLY WELL-MAINTAINED HOME BY 1 OWNER SINCE ORIGINALLY BUILT IN 1977. Very well-manicured lawn w/ walkways. UPDATES INCLUDE: Vinyl/Thermo Windows; Architectural Roof Shingles; Vapor Barrier Sealed Crawl Space; Vinyl Facia; Metal Gutters; Synthetic Wood Deck, Gas Log Fireplace. Enclosed Porch/ Sun Room is not included in Heated sf. SEE ATTACHED SKETCH

Key facts

• Gas fireplace
• Spacious lot
• Renovated kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• GAS FIREPLACE
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED SCREENED-IN ROOM
• VINYL THERMAL WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#115 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter 01 (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #64 of 80 in SC (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Middle (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #139 of 229 statewide, top 61%, 364 students, 100% FRL); Crestwood High (math 32% / reading 71%, grade D+, #146 of 196 statewide, top 75%, 1,100 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 23% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Sumter 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 229 active listings in the ZIP; 386 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $196k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,236 (8.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.71%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,485
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2349 Tall Oak Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,555 (0%)	1mo	$195,000	$125	99
2353 Tall Oak Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,407 (-10%)	1mo	$180,000	$128	82
4 Valleybrook Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-2%)	1mo	$215,000	$142	79
2385 Brookgreen Rd	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+0%)	15mo	$190,000	$122	71
2373 Mount Vernon Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,638 (+5%)	13mo	$202,500	$124	71
2365 Tall Oak Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-6%)	21mo	$190,000	$130	69
2334 Mt Vernon Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,775 (+14%)	8mo	$225,000	$127	67
5609 Longview Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-2%)	8mo	$224,000	$147	59
2406 Hunt Club Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+2%)	22mo	$190,000	$120	54
2445 Peach Orchard Rd	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,508 (-3%)	15mo	$149,500	$99	51
5419 Oakcrest Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-5%)	11mo	$180,000	$122	49
2401 Hunt Club Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-14%)	19mo	$185,000	$139	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,027
• Equity at exit: $29,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $18,699
• Equity at exit: $16,903

Cash invested: $54,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29154

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 229
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,025
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $491/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,453

Max offer price $195,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,875
• Closing costs: $5,865
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-08
   price $195,500
3. 2026-01-29
   listed $199,999 Active
4. 2019-06-19
   soldstatus $112,000
5. 2019-06-11
   soldstatus $112,000 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   EXCEPTIONALLY WELL-MAINTAINED HOME BY 1 OWNER SINCE ORIGINALLY BUILT IN 1977. Very well-manicured lawn w/ walkways. UPDATES INCLUDE: Vinyl/Thermo Windows; Architectural Roof Shingles; Vapor Barrier Sealed Crawl Space; Vinyl Facia; Metal Gutters; Synthetic Wood Deck, Gas Log Fireplace. Enclosed Porch/ Sun Room is not included in Heated sf. SEE ATTACHED SKETCH

6. 2019-04-01
   listed $116,500 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   EXCEPTIONALLY WELL-MAINTAINED HOME BY 1 OWNER SINCE ORIGINALLY BUILT IN 1977. Very well-manicured lawn w/ walkways. UPDATES INCLUDE: Vinyl/Thermo Windows; Architectural Roof Shingles; Vapor Barrier Sealed Crawl Space; Vinyl Facia; Metal Gutters; Synthetic Wood Deck, Gas Log Fireplace. Enclosed Porch/ Sun Room is not included in Heated sf. SEE ATTACHED SKETCH

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $491 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,114 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$624/yr (+$52/mo · 127.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,951
• − Property taxes: −$491
• − Insurance: −$978
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − Depreciation: −$5,687
• Taxable loss: −$140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$34
• After-tax cash flow: $3,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter 01
• NCES district ID: 4503902
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,423
• Composite: 19.45/100
• National rank: #8775
• State rank: #64 of 80 in SC

Livability — Oakland

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #11683

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakland, SC
• County: Sumter County · 76,912 people
• Metro: Sumter, SC
• Population (ZIP): 29,454
• Household income: $62,772
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,585 people
• By 2030: 102,282 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 96,258 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 89,592 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 74,715 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 60,235 · -42.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 36% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.9% · R 47.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: 15.4pp · 2024: 4.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.9 2020: D+13.0 2016: D+12.0 2012: D+17.5 2008: D+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.65%
• Current HPI: 157.8545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Sumter, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+67.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — SBOR
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $195,500 SBOR
• 2026-01-29 Listed $199,999 SBOR
• 2019-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-11 Sold (MLS) $112,000 SBOR
• 2019-04-01 Listed $116,500 SBOR

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $491 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.