1641 Concord St S · South St. Paul, MN 55075

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1885 5,227 sqft lot $93/sqft · 47% below area Est $209k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks! Your new home is in a tucked-away, conveniently located neighborhood with 2 bedrooms and a den upstairs, a flowing floorplan on the main level, and room to expand in the lower level. Relax on the large corner lot with a 2 car garage and work bench. Own your own home for less than rent! Build your own equity, ready for finishing touches. Walk & bike to the parks and ball fields. Minutes from schools, shopping, transit and downtown. Steps from the Mississippi River, miles hiking and biking trails, local eateries and big box stores, shopping and schools! The buyer is to assume any city required TISH repairs.

Key facts

• Local eateries
• Large corner lot
• Room to expand

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• ROOM TO EXPAND
• WALK AND BIKE TO PARKS
• STEPS FROM MISSISSIPPI RIVER
• MILES HIKING AND BIKING TRAILS
• LOCAL EATERIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $485 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.1% in South St. Paul — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South St. Paul Public School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #266 of 301 in MN (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,550 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.80%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,240
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -49.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $13,969
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $52,312
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55075

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,858/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,054

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $544	-5% $515	+0% $485	+5% $455	+10% $426
Rent	-10% $353	-5% $419	+0% $485	+5% $551	+10% $617
Rate	-1.0pp $538	-0.5pp $512	base $485	+0.5pp $458	+1.0pp $430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1615 Concord St S South Saint Paul, MN	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	0d	1	0.07mi
233 E Spruce St Unit 1 South St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	845	$1,335	$1.58	18d	1	0.49mi
221 Buron Ln South Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	977	$1,600	$1.64	13d	4	0.59mi
1500 Elrose Ct Unit 6 South St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	18d	1	0.76mi
1500 Elrose Ct Unit 2 South St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	44d	1	0.76mi
1510 Elrose Ct Apt 1 South St Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	18d	1	0.76mi
239 Park St W Unit 2 South St Paul, MN	1.0	1.0	700	$999	$1.43	44d	1	1.05mi
1156 8th Ave S Unit 1 South St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,870	$1.56	25d	1	1.12mi
708 1st Ave S Unit 708 South St Paul, MN	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,795	$1.50	17d	1	1.17mi
630 7th Ave Newport, MN	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	25d	1	1.18mi
1028 8th Ave S South St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	794	$1,175	$1.48	5d	12	1.20mi
1340 8th Ave Unit 3 Newport, MN	2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	5d	1	1.25mi
5480 Blackberry Trl Inver Grove Heights, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	969	$1,850	$1.91	5d	1	1.27mi
617 2nd Ave S South Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,795	$1.63	5d	1	1.28mi
1743 8th Ave Unit 1 Newport, MN	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,850	$1.68	44d	1	1.39mi
1761 8th Ave Newport, MN	3.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	18d	1	1.39mi
1624 10th Ave Newport, MN	2.0	1.0	750	$1,425	$1.90	18d	1	1.43mi
1650 10th Ave Newport, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,425	$2.04	3d	4	1.45mi
275 Red Rock Xing Newport, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	965	$1,599	$1.66	0d	39	1.48mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $105,000 Pending 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $105,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $122,400 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $122,400 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $122,400 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $122,400 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,400 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,400 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,400 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-05-07
    price $122,400 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! Your new home is in a tucked-away, conveniently located neighborhood with 2 bedrooms and a den upstairs, a flowing floorplan on the main level, and room to expand in the lower level. Relax on the large corner lot with a 2 car garage and work bench. Own your own home for less than rent! Build your own equity, ready for finishing touches. Walk & bike to the parks and ball fields. Minutes from schools, shopping, transit and downtown. Steps from the Mississippi River, miles hiking and biking trails, local eateries and big box stores, shopping and schools! The buyer is to assume any city required TISH repairs.

14. 2026-05-01
    status Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! Your new home is in a tucked-away, conveniently located neighborhood with 2 bedrooms and a den upstairs, a flowing floorplan on the main level, and room to expand in the lower level. Relax on the large corner lot with a 2 car garage and work bench. Own your own home for less than rent! Build your own equity, ready for finishing touches. Walk & bike to the parks and ball fields. Minutes from schools, shopping, transit and downtown. Steps from the Mississippi River, miles hiking and biking trails, local eateries and big box stores, shopping and schools! The buyer is to assume any city required TISH repairs.

15. 2026-04-29
    historical 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! Your new home is in a tucked-away, conveniently located neighborhood with 2 bedrooms and a den upstairs, a flowing floorplan on the main level, and room to expand in the lower level. Relax on the large corner lot with a 2 car garage and work bench. Own your own home for less than rent! Build your own equity, ready for finishing touches. Walk & bike to the parks and ball fields. Minutes from schools, shopping, transit and downtown. Steps from the Mississippi River, miles hiking and biking trails, local eateries and big box stores, shopping and schools! The buyer is to assume any city required TISH repairs.

16. 2026-04-08
    price $136,000 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! Your new home is in a tucked-away, conveniently located neighborhood with 2 bedrooms and a den upstairs, a flowing floorplan on the main level, and room to expand in the lower level. Relax on the large corner lot with a 2 car garage and work bench. Own your own home for less than rent! Build your own equity, ready for finishing touches. Walk & bike to the parks and ball fields. Minutes from schools, shopping, transit and downtown. Steps from the Mississippi River, miles hiking and biking trails, local eateries and big box stores, shopping and schools! The buyer is to assume any city required TISH repairs.

17. 2026-03-06
    listed $160,000 Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! Your new home is in a tucked-away, conveniently located neighborhood with 2 bedrooms and a den upstairs, a flowing floorplan on the main level, and room to expand in the lower level. Relax on the large corner lot with a 2 car garage and work bench. Own your own home for less than rent! Build your own equity, ready for finishing touches. Walk & bike to the parks and ball fields. Minutes from schools, shopping, transit and downtown. Steps from the Mississippi River, miles hiking and biking trails, local eateries and big box stores, shopping and schools! The buyer is to assume any city required TISH repairs.

18. 2006-11-16
    soldstatus $151,500
19. 2006-10-31
    soldstatus $151,500 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Great opportunity! Super starter home under $150k, this 2 bedroom home has character plus most updates. Newer furnace and appliances, silestone countertops, laminate floors, maintenance free siding. Picket fenced backyard!

20. 2006-10-09
    listed $147,900 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Great opportunity! Super starter home under $150k, this 2 bedroom home has character plus most updates. Newer furnace and appliances, silestone countertops, laminate floors, maintenance free siding. Picket fenced backyard!

21. 2004-06-30
    soldstatus $137,000
22. 2004-05-20
    soldstatus $137,000
23. 2004-04-19
    historical
24. 2003-11-27
    listed $135,000
25. 2000-08-21
    soldstatus $77,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,858 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,858 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$2,858
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,601
• − Management: −$1,601
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $4,493
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $4,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733270
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $55,787
• Composite: 25.47/100
• National rank: #7445
• State rank: #266 of 301 in MN

Livability — South St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: South St. Paul, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 20,651
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,714
• Household income: $88,386
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.43%
• Current HPI: 249.4573
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+57.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $122,400 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $136,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $160,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $151,500 Public Records
• 2006-10-31 Sold (MLS) $151,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-09 Listed $147,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $137,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-20 Sold (MLS) $137,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-27 Listed $135,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,858 · +22.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.