4700 Gulfgate Ln · St. James City, FL 33956

$212,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has NEVER flooded. Completely renovated 2024. Is move in ready, furnished. New Florida room and carport. Large outside shed. Large corner lot with two driveways. Have access to new Pool and Hot Tub as well as daily activities including courts. Clubhouse includes library and exercise room and is available for parties. Private boat landing and storage. Five minutes to the Gulf fishing. New flooring throughout (no thresholds)

Key facts

• Two driveways
• Large corner lot
• New florida room

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• NEW FLORIDA ROOM
• LARGE OUTSIDE SHED
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• TWO DRIVEWAYS
• ACCESS TO NEW POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $212k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $212k).
• Recommended offer: $199k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.9% in St. James City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Island Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 236 students, 45% FRL); Challenger Middle School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,124 students, 50% FRL); Ida S. Baker High School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,933 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 289 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $212k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,280 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.77%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,224
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4777 Sandpiper Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	4mo	$112,500	$117	79
4770 Gulfgate Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	972 (-8%)	21mo	$125,000	$129	66
5017 Gulfgate Ln	0.38mi	2/2.0	941 (-11%)	14mo	$124,000	$132	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-17,888
• Equity at exit: $31,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,323
• Equity at exit: $18,330

Cash invested: $59,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33956

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,208/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,292

Max offer price $212,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $315	+0% $255	+5% $195	+10% $135
Rent	-10% $48	-5% $151	+0% $255	+5% $358	+10% $461
Rate	-1.0pp $361	-0.5pp $308	base $255	+0.5pp $200	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,000
• Closing costs: $6,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4807 Flamingo Dr Saint James City, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$3,500	$2.49	3d	1	0.16mi
4944 Porky Ln Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	831	$1,600	$1.93	25d	1	0.27mi
7150 Cobiac Dr Saint James City, FL	2.0	2.0	826	$1,950	$2.36	25d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $212,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $212,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $212,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $212,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $212,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $212,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $212,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $212,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $212,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-05-26
    listed $199,000 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    This home has NEVER flooded. Completely renovated 2024. Is move in ready, furnished. New Florida room and carport. Large outside shed. Large corner lot with two driveways. Have access to new Pool and Hot Tub as well as daily activities including courts. Clubhouse includes library and exercise room and is available for parties. Private boat landing and storage. Five minutes to the Gulf fishing. New flooring throughout (no thresholds)

11. 2026-04-07
    listed $212,000 Active
12. 2026-03-24
    historical
13. 2026-03-05
    price $210,000
14. 2026-03-03
    status Active
15. 2026-02-22
    status Pending
16. 2026-01-23
    price $215,000
17. 2025-11-20
    listed $219,500 Active
18. 2025-06-20
    historical
19. 2025-06-16
    status Active
20. 2025-06-16
    price $124,900
21. 2025-04-29
    historical
22. 2025-02-21
    listed $249,900 Active
23. 2025-02-10
    historical
24. 2025-01-23
    price $259,000
25. 2024-12-13
    status Active
26. 2024-12-12
    historical
27. 2024-11-26
    listed $249,000 Active
28. 2014-02-04
    soldstatus $85,000
29. 1996-12-17
    soldstatus $58,000
30. 1994-12-30
    soldstatus $29,000
31. 1994-12-30
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,208 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,208 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,875
• − Property taxes: −$2,208
• − Insurance: −$6,178
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,510
• − Management: −$2,510
• − Depreciation: −$6,167
• Taxable loss: −$78
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19
• After-tax cash flow: $3,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. James City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. James City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,846

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.47%
• Current HPI: 300.1416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+586.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $199,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-07 Listed $212,000 Fizber.com
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $210,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2026-02-22 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $215,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $219,500 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-06-16 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $124,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-02-21 Listed $249,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-02-10 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-01-23 Price Changed $259,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-12-13 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2024-12-12 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-11-26 Listed $249,000 FORTMLS
• 2014-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1996-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 1994-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1994-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,208 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.