7651 W Chelsea Ct · Homosassa Springs, FL 34446

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · Manufactured public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1977 1.00 ac lot Est $229k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious double-wide with HUGE DETACHED GARAGE(28x42) and attached carport on 1 ACRE LOT in Homosassa. Conveniently located less than 2 miles off Hwy. 19 at the end of a cul-de-sac for added privacy and safety. The home features a split floor plan with 3 BR's and 2 baths. All living areas are very spacious with a huge formal dining area open to the living room which is great for entertaining. The kitchen has a breakfast bar and an additional eating area. The master suite has a large walk-in closet, double sinks and a large handicap accessible shower. Detached garage has a 1 car stall and two large finished rooms perfect for a workshop, studio or craft room. The 1 acre lot offers plenty of s

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Split floor plan
• Formal dining area

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• 1 ACRE LOT
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces total; 1-car garage; Attached carport; Detached garage; Driveway; Carport with garage door opener; Combination of paved and unpaved parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property
• Construction: Double wide manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Membrane (rubber) roof; Property faces south; Cul-de-sac lot; Level, rectangular, wooded lot; Paved road frontage on county road; Garage(s), storage, and workshop on site; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Laminate counters; Open floorplan; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); High speed internet; Drapes and window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.9% in Homosassa Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#391 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Homosassa Elementary School (math 62% / reading 47%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 411 students, 78% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 582 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $170k implies a 372% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.83%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,620
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7668 W Grove St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,626 (+1%)	13mo	$200,000	$123	85
7419 W Astoria Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-3%)	5mo	$226,000	$144	77
4965 S Quiz Pt	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,523 (-5%)	6mo	$199,900	$131	68
7393 Astoria Ct	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-3%)	11mo	$222,900	$142	67
7434 W Astoria Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-4%)	23mo	$249,600	$161	63
7418 W Astoria Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-7%)	19mo	$236,000	$157	60
7282 W Pompey Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	13mo	$140,000	$97	45
4995 S Roebuck Way	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+7%)	14mo	$198,000	$115	41
6902 W Crosbeck Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-10%)	13mo	$230,000	$160	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,177
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $53,017
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34446

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 582
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,070 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $552/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,360

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $657	-5% $609	+0% $561	+5% $513	+10% $465
Rent	-10% $398	-5% $479	+0% $561	+5% $643	+10% $725
Rate	-1.0pp $647	-0.5pp $604	base $561	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3844 S Swan Ter Homosassa, FL	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,800	$1.54	22d	1	1.31mi
5900 S Oakridge Dr Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,575	$1.50	22d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    listed $179,900 Active
17. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $552 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,410 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$859/yr (+$72/mo · 155.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$552
• − Insurance: −$1,647
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $4,208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,010
• After-tax cash flow: $5,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Homosassa Springs

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #391
• US rank: #6877

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Homosassa Springs, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,102
• Household income: $58,802
• Rent vs Own: 6.9% rent · 93.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 121.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.11%
• Current HPI: 277.2576
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+399.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $179,900 RACC
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $552 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.