25297 E Welches Rd #45 · Mount Hood Villages, OR 97067

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Other · 168 Days on market

Built 1961 $112/sqft · 30% above area Est $69k · 30% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*CASH ONLY*Welcome to the cutest little mountain retreat in the heart of Welches. Just a short walk to the Mt. Hood Resort spa and golf course, with endless hiking and walking trails right outside your door, this fully remodeled 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers style, comfort, efficiency and exceptional value. Thoughtfully redesigned from top to bottom, inside and out, this home features high end finishes rarely found in a manufactured home. Enjoy durable LVP flooring throughout, a high efficiency mini split for year round comfort, and a fully custom kitchen complete with handcrafted cabinetry and stunning black leather granite countertops. The bathroom is equally impressive, showcasing floor to ceiling tile, gold accents, and a beautiful Breccia grey marble vanity. This is not a flip. Every detail was chosen with intention and built to last. At this low price, this is an affordable mountain getaway that feels anything but basic. Come see it for yourself. It will not last long!

Key facts

• Fully remodeled home
• Mountain retreat
• Short walk to spa

Tags

• MOUNTAIN RETREAT
• SHORT WALK TO SPA
• ENDLESS HIKING TRAILS
• FULLY REMODELED HOME
• HIGH END FINISHES
• DURABLE LVP FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $784 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 2.2% in Mount Hood Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Oregon Trail SD 46 (town): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #12 of 183 in OR (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.40%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,000
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 30.29%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $35,421
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $95,287
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97067

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $784

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $89,900 993-char remark

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    *CASH ONLY*Welcome to the cutest little mountain retreat in the heart of Welches. Just a short walk to the Mt. Hood Resort spa and golf course, with endless hiking and walking trails right outside your door, this fully remodeled 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers style, comfort, efficiency and exceptional value. Thoughtfully redesigned from top to bottom, inside and out, this home features high end finishes rarely found in a manufactured home. Enjoy durable LVP flooring throughout, a high efficiency mini split for year round comfort, and a fully custom kitchen complete with handcrafted cabinetry and stunning black leather granite countertops. The bathroom is equally impressive, showcasing floor to ceiling tile, gold accents, and a beautiful Breccia grey marble vanity. This is not a flip. Every detail was chosen with intention and built to last. At this low price, this is an affordable mountain getaway that feels anything but basic. Come see it for yourself. It will not last long!

15. 2026-02-05
    status Active 993-char remark

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    *CASH ONLY*Welcome to the cutest little mountain retreat in the heart of Welches. Just a short walk to the Mt. Hood Resort spa and golf course, with endless hiking and walking trails right outside your door, this fully remodeled 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers style, comfort, efficiency and exceptional value. Thoughtfully redesigned from top to bottom, inside and out, this home features high end finishes rarely found in a manufactured home. Enjoy durable LVP flooring throughout, a high efficiency mini split for year round comfort, and a fully custom kitchen complete with handcrafted cabinetry and stunning black leather granite countertops. The bathroom is equally impressive, showcasing floor to ceiling tile, gold accents, and a beautiful Breccia grey marble vanity. This is not a flip. Every detail was chosen with intention and built to last. At this low price, this is an affordable mountain getaway that feels anything but basic. Come see it for yourself. It will not last long!

16. 2026-01-07
    status Pending 993-char remark

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    *CASH ONLY*Welcome to the cutest little mountain retreat in the heart of Welches. Just a short walk to the Mt. Hood Resort spa and golf course, with endless hiking and walking trails right outside your door, this fully remodeled 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers style, comfort, efficiency and exceptional value. Thoughtfully redesigned from top to bottom, inside and out, this home features high end finishes rarely found in a manufactured home. Enjoy durable LVP flooring throughout, a high efficiency mini split for year round comfort, and a fully custom kitchen complete with handcrafted cabinetry and stunning black leather granite countertops. The bathroom is equally impressive, showcasing floor to ceiling tile, gold accents, and a beautiful Breccia grey marble vanity. This is not a flip. Every detail was chosen with intention and built to last. At this low price, this is an affordable mountain getaway that feels anything but basic. Come see it for yourself. It will not last long!

17. 2025-12-04
    listed $99,999 Active 993-char remark

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    *CASH ONLY*Welcome to the cutest little mountain retreat in the heart of Welches. Just a short walk to the Mt. Hood Resort spa and golf course, with endless hiking and walking trails right outside your door, this fully remodeled 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers style, comfort, efficiency and exceptional value. Thoughtfully redesigned from top to bottom, inside and out, this home features high end finishes rarely found in a manufactured home. Enjoy durable LVP flooring throughout, a high efficiency mini split for year round comfort, and a fully custom kitchen complete with handcrafted cabinetry and stunning black leather granite countertops. The bathroom is equally impressive, showcasing floor to ceiling tile, gold accents, and a beautiful Breccia grey marble vanity. This is not a flip. Every detail was chosen with intention and built to last. At this low price, this is an affordable mountain getaway that feels anything but basic. Come see it for yourself. It will not last long!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥84°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $8,487
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,037
• After-tax cash flow: $7,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oregon Trail SD 46
• NCES district ID: 4110890
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $61,406
• Composite: 50.19/100
• National rank: #4075
• State rank: #12 of 183 in OR

Livability — Mount Hood Villages

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Hood Villages, OR
• City population: 2,285
• Population (ZIP): 2,285

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Two or more races 21% Hispanic / Latino 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.81%
• Current HPI: 310.9922
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $89,900 RMLS
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-01-07 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $99,999 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2018): $33 · +15.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.