Seneca · Pocono Pines, PA 18347

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily

Est $216k · 44% under ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Adorable Chalet cul de sac 2 bedroom plus sleeping loft, Wood flooring, Living room fireplace for those chilly nights! Community offers 2 lakes, 3 pools, 4 decks, Tennis courts, Basket and Volleyball courts, Game Room. Located in Arrowhead Lakes

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.0% in Pocono Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#532 in PA, #4,925 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 247 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.68%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
151 Ottawa Trl	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+2%)	6mo	$140,000	$162	72
149 Ottawa Trl	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+6%)	3mo	$243,000	$270	68
161 Towanda Trl	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	922 (+8%)	6mo	$285,000	$309	63
202 Owassa Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+7%)	13mo	$260,000	$285	56
1120 Arrowhead Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (+9%)	7mo	$185,000	$200	52
1455 Lake Ln	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+13%)	2mo	$120,000	$125	51
1459 Lake Ln	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (+13%)	0mo	$215,000	$224	50
104 Iowa Trl	0.35mi	2/1.0	729 (-14%)	14mo	$115,000	$158	48
104 White Pine Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+13%)	4mo	$290,000	$302	43
136 Netcong Cir	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	932 (+10%)	3mo	$229,000	$246	40
145 Mountain View Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5 (+1)	960 (+13%)	13mo	$250,000	$260	37
181 Elk Run Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	768 (-10%)	14mo	$195,000	$254	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $19,969
• Equity at exit: $26,248

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $65,270
• Equity at exit: $25,328

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18347

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 247
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Iowa Trl Pocono Lake, PA	2.0	1.0	874	$1,675	$1.92	43d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2009-03-10
   historical
2. 2009-01-03
   listed $119,900
3. 2006-11-01
   listed $169,900
4. 2003-01-07
   listed $164,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $4,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,028
• After-tax cash flow: $4,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pocono Pines

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #4925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 595
• Population (ZIP): 3,535

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.47%
• Current HPI: 202.3693
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-27.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2009-03-10 Delisted — LCAR
• 2009-01-03 Listed $119,900 LCAR
• 2006-11-01 Listed $169,900 PMAR
• 2003-01-07 Listed $164,900 PMAR