Bagley Plan · Flemington, GA 31313

$289,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,065 sqft · SingleFamily · 186 Days on market

Good condition $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to our new Bagley plan - a stunning residence featuring 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, designed with versatile spaces to accommodate any lifestyle. Enter through a welcoming foyer that offers clear sightlines to the flex room, ideal for a home office or additional living space. As you proceed down the hallway, you'll discover a spacious family room that can include an optional fireplace. The family room seamlessly connects to the kitchen, which boasts a corner pantry and a breakfast bar, ensuring the cook remains part of the action. Upstairs, three bedrooms with ample closet space share a conveniently located hall bathroom. The primary suite features a luxurious bathroom equipped with a garden tub, a separate shower, and an expansive walk-in closet. For added convenience, the laundry room is also located upstairs. Artistic renderings are for visual reference only and that actual floor plans, features, and inclusions may differ.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Corner pantry
• Flex room

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• CORNER PANTRY
• BREAKFAST BAR
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $289,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $311,010.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-334 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#150 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 800 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,329/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $232,892 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.61%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,010
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -6.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 W.w. Winn Ave	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,990 (-4%)	2mo	$280,000	$141	79
1161 Turpentine Trl	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,061 (-0%)	11mo	$305,000	$148	72
11 Herty Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,022 (-2%)	12mo	$308,975	$153	72
81 Cassels Ct	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,095 (+2%)	17mo	$318,000	$152	69
74 W W Winn Ave	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,168 (+5%)	14mo	$309,500	$143	68
19 Epson Ct	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,243 (+9%)	8mo	$389,900	$174	64
199 Herty Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,168 (+5%)	18mo	$299,000	$138	61
206 W W Winn Ave	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,272 (+10%)	15mo	$319,000	$140	59
228 Herty Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,884 (-9%)	15mo	$299,900	$159	58
51 Trask Cir	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,781 (-14%)	10mo	$285,900	$161	54
160 Herty Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,254 (+9%)	19mo	$333,000	$148	54
1007 Turpentine Trl	0.43mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+9%)	23mo	$316,235	$140	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-65,866
• Equity at exit: $46,373

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-59,648
• Equity at exit: $26,890

Cash invested: $87,083 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 38.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $304,900 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 26% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 800
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,329 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,631
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,665/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,752

Max offer price $262,612

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-227	+0% $-334	+5% $-442	+10% $-549
Rent	-10% $-518	-5% $-426	+0% $-334	+5% $-242	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-178	-0.5pp $-255	base $-334	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,753
• Closing costs: $9,330
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
155 Factors Walk Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2460	$2,200	$0.89	93d	1	0.21mi
137 Turpentine Trl Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2272	$2,300	$1.01	93d	1	0.34mi
95 Shawn Ct Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2268	$2,150	$0.95	93d	1	0.99mi
65 Thorp Cir Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	2966	$2,700	$0.91	93d	1	1.18mi
130 Hazy Ln Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1518	$2,100	$1.38	93d	1	1.23mi
158 Hamlet Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1458	$2,250	$1.54	93d	1	1.25mi
100 Centennial Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1703	$2,150	$1.26	93d	1	1.35mi
78 Centennial Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1462	$2,100	$1.44	93d	1	1.36mi
96 Beaumont Dr Unit 1 Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,975	$1.41	93d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $289,900 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $289,900 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $289,900 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $289,900 Active 182 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $289,900 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $289,900 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $289,900 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $289,900 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $289,900 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $289,900 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $289,900 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $289,900 Active 169 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $289,900 Active 168 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $289,900 Active 165 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $289,900 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $289,900 Active 162 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $289,900 Active 161 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $289,900 Active 160 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $289,900 Active 159 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $289,900 Active 158 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $289,900 Active 157 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $289,900 Active 156 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 155 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 154 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $289,900 Active 153 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $289,900 Active 152 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $289,900 Active 151 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 150 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 149 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 148 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 147 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $289,900 Active 146 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $289,900 Active 145 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $289,900 Active 144 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $289,900 Active 143 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $289,900 Active 142 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $289,900 Active 139 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $289,900 Active 138 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $289,900 Active 136 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $289,900 Active 135 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $289,900 Active 134 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $289,900 Active 133 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $289,900 Active 132 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $289,900 Active 130 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $289,900 Active 129 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $289,900 Active 127 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $289,900 Active 126 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 125 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 124 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,421
• − Property taxes: −$4,665
• − Insurance: −$1,555
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,236
• − Management: −$2,236
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$9,048
• Taxable loss: −$9,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,283
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,325–$30,975 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior and maintaining the landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joseph Martin Elementary School F GA #784/1,228 Nat'l #31,434/41,679 Middle Midway Middle School F GA #260/470 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High Liberty County High School F GA #131/424 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Flemington

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #9758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flemington, GA
• County: Liberty County · 58,689 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+2.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $289,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Listed $282,900 Zillow