4155 NE Three Mile Ln #191 · McMinnville, OR 97128

$198,850

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,608 sqft · Manufactured public records · 105 Days on market

Built 2020 $124/sqft · at area comps Est $187k · 6% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Olde Stone Village, one of the area’s most loved 55+ communities, known for its friendly neighbors and low-maintenance lifestyle. Built in 2020, this thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,445 sq ft of bright, open living that feels both comfortable and modern. The recently remodeled kitchen is a standout, featuring clean finishes, great flow, and space to gather for everyday living or entertaining. Ample storage and meticulous care throughout make this home truly move-in ready. One of the best features is the fully fenced backyard, backing to peaceful greenspace and offering privacy without the work. Ideally located just minutes from the museum, hospital, and movie theaters, with an easy drive to the coast for day trips. Community amenities include a clubhouse, seasonal pool, and pickleball courts, making this an inviting place to enjoy easy living and a strong sense of community.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community amenities
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• PEACEFUL GREENSPACE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• SEASONAL POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $838 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.2% in McMinnville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#79 in OR, #3,556 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: commute D+.
• Mcminnville SD 40 (town): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #20 of 183 in OR (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 395 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 282 units permitted in Yamhill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yamhill County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $180,953 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.06%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,000
• List price: $198,850
• Delta: 6.34%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #53	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-2%)	8mo	$155,000	$99	87
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #108	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (-4%)	2mo	$334,500	$217	85
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #7	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-2%)	12mo	$238,500	$152	84
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #36	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-6%)	1mo	$330,000	$218	82
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #191	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-10%)	1mo	$187,000	$129	81
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #104	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-4%)	10mo	$289,000	$188	77
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #164	0.00mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,728 (+8%)	7mo	$170,000	$98	75
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #41	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-4%)	16mo	$289,000	$188	72
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #117	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-4%)	10mo	$295,000	$192	72
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #157	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-13%)	9mo	$220,000	$157	70
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #173	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,809 (+12%)	19mo	$195,000	$108	61
4155 NE Three Mile Ln #136	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-12%)	15mo	$279,000	$198	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,504
• Equity at exit: $29,649

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $60,052
• Equity at exit: $17,193

Cash invested: $55,678 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97128

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 395
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,559 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,043
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $693/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $838

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,498

Max offer price $198,850

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $951	-5% $894	+0% $838	+5% $782	+10% $725
Rent	-10% $636	-5% $737	+0% $838	+5% $939	+10% $1,040
Rate	-1.0pp $938	-0.5pp $889	base $838	+0.5pp $786	+1.0pp $734

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,712
• Closing costs: $5,966
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
188 NE American Dr McMinnville, OR	4.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	0d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 926-char remark

   Show marketing remark (926 chars)

   Welcome to Olde Stone Village, one of the area’s most loved 55+ communities, known for its friendly neighbors and low-maintenance lifestyle. Built in 2020, this thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,445 sq ft of bright, open living that feels both comfortable and modern. The recently remodeled kitchen is a standout, featuring clean finishes, great flow, and space to gather for everyday living or entertaining. Ample storage and meticulous care throughout make this home truly move-in ready. One of the best features is the fully fenced backyard, backing to peaceful greenspace and offering privacy without the work. Ideally located just minutes from the museum, hospital, and movie theaters, with an easy drive to the coast for day trips. Community amenities include a clubhouse, seasonal pool, and pickleball courts, making this an inviting place to enjoy easy living and a strong sense of community.

2. 2026-04-10
   status Active 926-char remark

   Show marketing remark (926 chars)

   Welcome to Olde Stone Village, one of the area’s most loved 55+ communities, known for its friendly neighbors and low-maintenance lifestyle. Built in 2020, this thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,445 sq ft of bright, open living that feels both comfortable and modern. The recently remodeled kitchen is a standout, featuring clean finishes, great flow, and space to gather for everyday living or entertaining. Ample storage and meticulous care throughout make this home truly move-in ready. One of the best features is the fully fenced backyard, backing to peaceful greenspace and offering privacy without the work. Ideally located just minutes from the museum, hospital, and movie theaters, with an easy drive to the coast for day trips. Community amenities include a clubhouse, seasonal pool, and pickleball courts, making this an inviting place to enjoy easy living and a strong sense of community.

3. 2026-04-03
   status Pending 926-char remark

   Show marketing remark (926 chars)

   Welcome to Olde Stone Village, one of the area’s most loved 55+ communities, known for its friendly neighbors and low-maintenance lifestyle. Built in 2020, this thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,445 sq ft of bright, open living that feels both comfortable and modern. The recently remodeled kitchen is a standout, featuring clean finishes, great flow, and space to gather for everyday living or entertaining. Ample storage and meticulous care throughout make this home truly move-in ready. One of the best features is the fully fenced backyard, backing to peaceful greenspace and offering privacy without the work. Ideally located just minutes from the museum, hospital, and movie theaters, with an easy drive to the coast for day trips. Community amenities include a clubhouse, seasonal pool, and pickleball courts, making this an inviting place to enjoy easy living and a strong sense of community.

4. 2026-03-19
   price $198,850 926-char remark

   Show marketing remark (926 chars)

   Welcome to Olde Stone Village, one of the area’s most loved 55+ communities, known for its friendly neighbors and low-maintenance lifestyle. Built in 2020, this thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,445 sq ft of bright, open living that feels both comfortable and modern. The recently remodeled kitchen is a standout, featuring clean finishes, great flow, and space to gather for everyday living or entertaining. Ample storage and meticulous care throughout make this home truly move-in ready. One of the best features is the fully fenced backyard, backing to peaceful greenspace and offering privacy without the work. Ideally located just minutes from the museum, hospital, and movie theaters, with an easy drive to the coast for day trips. Community amenities include a clubhouse, seasonal pool, and pickleball courts, making this an inviting place to enjoy easy living and a strong sense of community.

5. 2026-01-22
   listed $205,000 Active 926-char remark

   Show marketing remark (926 chars)

   Welcome to Olde Stone Village, one of the area’s most loved 55+ communities, known for its friendly neighbors and low-maintenance lifestyle. Built in 2020, this thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,445 sq ft of bright, open living that feels both comfortable and modern. The recently remodeled kitchen is a standout, featuring clean finishes, great flow, and space to gather for everyday living or entertaining. Ample storage and meticulous care throughout make this home truly move-in ready. One of the best features is the fully fenced backyard, backing to peaceful greenspace and offering privacy without the work. Ideally located just minutes from the museum, hospital, and movie theaters, with an easy drive to the coast for day trips. Community amenities include a clubhouse, seasonal pool, and pickleball courts, making this an inviting place to enjoy easy living and a strong sense of community.

6. 2025-10-01
   price $208,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $693 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,929 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,236/yr (+$103/mo · 178.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,139
• − Property taxes: −$693
• − Insurance: −$994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,456
• − Management: −$2,456
• − Depreciation: −$5,785
• Taxable income: $7,181
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,723
• After-tax cash flow: $8,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcminnville SD 40
• NCES district ID: 4108010
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,382
• Composite: 47.69/100
• National rank: #4919
• State rank: #20 of 183 in OR

Livability — McMinnville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #3556

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McMinnville, OR
• County: Yamhill County · 71,150 people
• City population: 38,664
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 38,664
• Household income: $75,896
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1508.0

Population outlook (Yamhill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 109,295 people
• By 2030: 112,060 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 115,975 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 118,155 · +8.1%
• By 2075: 120,968 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 116,163 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yamhill

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 45.3% · R 51.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+4.0 2016: R+8.8 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.59%
• Current HPI: 320.373
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — RMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $198,850 RMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $205,000 RMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $208,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2019): $693 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.