6301 County Road 130 · St. Joseph, TN 35645

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1958 1.94 ac lot $114/sqft · 24% below area Est $211k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Easy Living in Killen Alabama! Comfortable corner home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Beautiful level and rolling homesite with large trees! Spacious Rooms with original Beautiful Knotty pine cabinets and walls in the living and dining area! The bedrooms are very nice sized. Kitchen Appliances and bedroom safe remain. 24x28 Garage has electricity, Heater, and lots of room for 2 cars, side-by-side, and workshop area! Property lines goes inside the treeline. Home "SOLD AS IS."

Key facts

• Level homesite
• Kitchen appliances
• Large trees

Tags

• CORNER HOME
• LEVEL HOMESITE
• LARGE TREES
• ORIGINAL KNOTTY PINE CABINETS
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• GARAGE HAS ELECTRICITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-269/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lauderdale County (rural): math 19% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #53 of 129 in AL (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Underwood Elementary School (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #392 of 627 statewide, top 65%, 325 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 37% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Solid renter incomes; 164 units permitted in Lauderdale County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,949 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,444
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -24.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15804 Co Rd 47	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,493 (+6%)	24mo	$150,000	$100	54
8714 Co Rd 25	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,609 (+15%)	13mo	$260,000	$162	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-27,424
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-26,065
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35645

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $399/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $155,938

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $23	+0% $-22	+5% $-68	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $-68	+0% $-22	+5% $23	+10% $69
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $18	base $-22	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $159,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 82 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 81 DOM
18. 2026-03-10
    listed $169,900 Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Easy Living in Killen Alabama! Comfortable corner home with 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Beautiful level and rolling homesite with large trees! Spacious Rooms with original Beautiful Knotty pine cabinets and walls in the living and dining area! The bedrooms are very nice sized. Kitchen Appliances and bedroom safe remain. 24x28 Garage has electricity, Heater, and lots of room for 2 cars, side-by-side, and workshop area! Property lines goes inside the treeline. Home "SOLD AS IS."

19. 2005-01-10
    listed $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $399 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,135 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$736/yr (+$61/mo · 184.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$399
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,113
• − Management: −$1,113
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$749
• After-tax cash flow: $480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lauderdale County
• NCES district ID: 0102010
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,501
• Composite: 27.93/100
• National rank: #6863
• State rank: #53 of 129 in AL

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Lauderdale County
• Metro: Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL
• Population (ZIP): 13,960
• Household income: $87,958
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 83.0

Population outlook (Lauderdale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,386 people
• By 2030: 93,634 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 93,114 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 91,586 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 88,667 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 81,098 · -13.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lauderdale

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.5) · D 23.8% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -51.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.5 2020: R+44.7 2016: R+46.0 2012: R+30.9 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.61%
• Current HPI: 193.3443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+126.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $169,900 VMLS
• 2005-01-10 Listed $74,900 SAARMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $399 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.