438 S Marshall St · Pontiac, MI 48342

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,159 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 184 Days on market

Built 1920 4,356 sqft lot $73/sqft · 23% below area Est $76k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Due to one of the owners passing, title work is at the courts and should be cleared in May. Renters where paying $2,000 a month, plus utilities. This is one of two houses just one block apart from each other, great income potential for the right buyer. We are looking for a package deal but will sell separately for the right dollar. Second house is 438 S Anderson MLS # 20251060260

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 184 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $487 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 6.7% in Pontiac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#499 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Pontiac City School District (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #514 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $85k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.58%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $76,340
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 11.34%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
489 Central Ave	0.29mi	2/1.0	1,140 (-2%)	9mo	$75,000	$66	76
455 Irwin Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,164 (+0%)	8mo	$70,000	$60	71
447 E Wilson Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0	1,018 (-12%)	5mo	$38,000	$37	70
268 S S Anderson Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+4%)	6mo	$160,000	$133	69
187 Wall St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,118 (-4%)	3mo	$169,000	$151	66
354 Ferry Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,222 (+5%)	8mo	$140,000	$115	63
306 Whittemore St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,134 (-2%)	2mo	$120,000	$106	60
317 Prospect St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,042 (-10%)	5mo	$127,000	$122	59
287 S Anderson Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-13%)	3mo	$134,900	$134	58
328 Whittemore St	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,034 (-11%)	6mo	$64,500	$62	48
472 S Jessie St	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-14%)	9mo	$125,000	$125	46
67 Wall St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,038 (-10%)	2mo	$169,900	$164	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $17,272
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $55,019
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48342

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,322 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $905/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $705

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $536	-5% $511	+0% $487	+5% $463	+10% $439
Rent	-10% $383	-5% $435	+0% $487	+5% $540	+10% $592
Rate	-1.0pp $530	-0.5pp $509	base $487	+0.5pp $465	+1.0pp $443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
489 Central Ave Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,195	$1.05	5d	1	0.29mi
442 Central Ave Unit 1 Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	5d	1	0.32mi
442 Central Ave Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	17d	1	0.32mi
128 S Edith St Pontiac, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1155	$1,384	$1.20	18d	1	0.57mi
90 Martin Luther King Jr Blvd S Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	0.67mi
83 S Edith St Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	818	$1,450	$1.77	25d	1	0.68mi
900 Martin Luther King Jr Blvd S Pontiac, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,065	$1.33	5d	1	0.69mi
51 S Francis St Unit 4 Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.75mi
97 S Jessie St Unit 2 Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,120	$1.40	25d	1	0.79mi
124 Alice Ave Bloomfield Township, MI	3.0	1.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	5d	1	0.90mi
38 N Shirley St Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	1174	$1,425	$1.21	44d	1	0.98mi
68 N Shirley St Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	950	$1,395	$1.47	18d	1	1.03mi
471 Montana Ave Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	1017	$1,599	$1.57	44d	1	1.12mi
249 W Wilson Ave Unit 1 Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,540	$1.71	44d	1	1.13mi
305 South Blvd W Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	709	$1,400	$1.97	0d	1	1.15mi
2081 Oaknoll St Auburn Hills, MI	2.0	2.0	860	$1,600	$1.86	44d	1	1.15mi
4000 Winston Dr Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.5	952	$1,182	$1.24	0d	1	1.21mi
611 Montana Ave Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,350	$1.21	44d	1	1.35mi
28 N Saginaw St Pontiac, MI	1.0	1.0	615	$1,600	$2.60	5d	10	1.37mi
594 Colorado Ave Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,075	$1.07	25d	1	1.41mi
35 N Saginaw St Unit 2 Pontiac, MI	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	1.41mi
35 N Saginaw St Pontiac, MI	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	1.41mi
16 Victory Dr Unit 18 Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	1114	$1,150	$1.03	25d	1	1.47mi
16 Victory Dr Unit 18 Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	1118	$1,150	$1.03	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-02-13
    price $85,000 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Due to one of the owners passing, title work is at the courts and should be cleared in May. Renters where paying $2,000 a month, plus utilities. This is one of two houses just one block apart from each other, great income potential for the right buyer. We are looking for a package deal but will sell separately for the right dollar. Second house is 438 S Anderson MLS # 20251060260

16. 2026-02-12
    price $85,000 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Due to one of the owners passing, title work is at the courts and should be cleared in May. Renters where paying $2,000 a month, plus utilities. This is one of two houses just one block apart from each other, great income potential for the right buyer. We are looking for a package deal but will sell separately for the right dollar. Second house is 438 S Anderson MLS # 20251060260

17. 2026-01-28
    price $99,900 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Due to one of the owners passing, title work is at the courts and should be cleared in May. Renters where paying $2,000 a month, plus utilities. This is one of two houses just one block apart from each other, great income potential for the right buyer. We are looking for a package deal but will sell separately for the right dollar. Second house is 438 S Anderson MLS # 20251060260

18. 2026-01-27
    price $99,900 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Due to one of the owners passing, title work is at the courts and should be cleared in May. Renters where paying $2,000 a month, plus utilities. This is one of two houses just one block apart from each other, great income potential for the right buyer. We are looking for a package deal but will sell separately for the right dollar. Second house is 438 S Anderson MLS # 20251060260

19. 2026-01-18
    price $110,000 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Due to one of the owners passing, title work is at the courts and should be cleared in May. Renters where paying $2,000 a month, plus utilities. This is one of two houses just one block apart from each other, great income potential for the right buyer. We are looking for a package deal but will sell separately for the right dollar. Second house is 438 S Anderson MLS # 20251060260

20. 2026-01-17
    price $110,000 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Due to one of the owners passing, title work is at the courts and should be cleared in May. Renters where paying $2,000 a month, plus utilities. This is one of two houses just one block apart from each other, great income potential for the right buyer. We are looking for a package deal but will sell separately for the right dollar. Second house is 438 S Anderson MLS # 20251060260

21. 2025-12-15
    listed $129,900 Active 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Due to one of the owners passing, title work is at the courts and should be cleared in May. Renters where paying $2,000 a month, plus utilities. This is one of two houses just one block apart from each other, great income potential for the right buyer. We are looking for a package deal but will sell separately for the right dollar. Second house is 438 S Anderson MLS # 20251060260

22. 2025-12-15
    listed $129,900 Active 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Due to one of the owners passing, title work is at the courts and should be cleared in May. Renters where paying $2,000 a month, plus utilities. This is one of two houses just one block apart from each other, great income potential for the right buyer. We are looking for a package deal but will sell separately for the right dollar. Second house is 438 S Anderson MLS # 20251060260

23. 1999-12-16
    soldstatus $44,900
24. 1998-09-28
    soldstatus $15,000
25. 1997-03-14
    soldstatus $32,000
26. 1996-10-15
    soldstatus $29,000
27. 1995-10-04
    soldstatus $7,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $905 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$202/yr (+$17/mo · 22.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$905
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,269
• − Management: −$1,269
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,142
• After-tax cash flow: $4,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pontiac City School District
• NCES district ID: 2628740
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,888
• Composite: 10.12/100
• National rank: #9802
• State rank: #514 of 540 in MI

Livability — Pontiac

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #499
• US rank: #14703

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pontiac, MI
• City population: 44,593
• Population (ZIP): 17,227

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 19% White 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.18%
• Current HPI: 214.3258
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+1033.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $85,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $110,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $110,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-15 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-15 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1999-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $44,900 Public Records
• 1998-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1997-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1995-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $905 · -43.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.