3430 NW 21st Dr Unit D-2 · Gainesville, FL 32605

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 962 sqft · Condo public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1981 $377/mo HOA · 23% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo located in the highly sought-after Palmetto Villas community, where units are rarely available. This spacious unit features ceramic tile flooring in the main living areas and bathrooms, brand new luxury vinyl plank flooring in both bedrooms, and no carpet throughout for easy maintenance. The interior has been freshly painted, offering a bright and modern feel. The open living and dining area provides a functional layout, while the generously sized bedrooms offer comfort and flexibility. Enjoy the private porch overlooking a peaceful common area—perfect for relaxing. Additional features include an exterior storage room with washer and dryer, two assigned parking spaces, and a new AC unit installed in 2022. Centrally located in Gainesville, just minutes from UF, Santa Fe College, Shands Hospital, shopping, dining, Publix, and downtown. An excellent opportunity for investors! Fully leased until 7/31/27

Key facts

• Private porch
• New ac unit
• $377 HOA

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• PRIVATE PORCH
• EXTERIOR STORAGE ROOM
• TWO ASSIGNED PARKING SPACES
• NEW AC UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (13.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Glen Springs Elementary School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 426 students, 47% FRL); Westwood Middle School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 847 students, 56% FRL); Gainesville High School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 1,873 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $120,416 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.38%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-27,011
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-21,280
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32605

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,990/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$377
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,795

Max offer price $120,416

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-31	-5% $-71	+0% $-110	+5% $-150	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-176	+0% $-110	+5% $-45	+10% $20
Rate	-1.0pp $-40	-0.5pp $-75	base $-110	+0.5pp $-147	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2220 NW 55th Blvd Gainesville, FL	2.0	1.0	928	$1,465	$1.58	22d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $377 · $4,524/yr
• Likely covers: parking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $139,900 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 117 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 116 DOM
18. 2026-02-03
    listed $145,000 Active 962-char remark

    Show marketing remark (962 chars)

    Beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo located in the highly sought-after Palmetto Villas community, where units are rarely available. This spacious unit features ceramic tile flooring in the main living areas and bathrooms, brand new luxury vinyl plank flooring in both bedrooms, and no carpet throughout for easy maintenance. The interior has been freshly painted, offering a bright and modern feel. The open living and dining area provides a functional layout, while the generously sized bedrooms offer comfort and flexibility. Enjoy the private porch overlooking a peaceful common area—perfect for relaxing. Additional features include an exterior storage room with washer and dryer, two assigned parking spaces, and a new AC unit installed in 2022. Centrally located in Gainesville, just minutes from UF, Santa Fe College, Shands Hospital, shopping, dining, Publix, and downtown. An excellent opportunity for investors! Fully leased until 7/31/27

19. 2025-08-18
    historical
20. 2025-05-25
    historical $1,375
21. 2025-03-28
    listed $1,375
22. 2025-03-28
    historical $1,375
23. 2025-03-27
    listed $1,375
24. 2025-03-18
    historical $1,375
25. 2025-03-05
    listed $1,375
26. 2025-03-05
    historical $1,375
27. 2025-02-07
    listed $1,375
28. 2025-01-05
    listed $158,000 Active
29. 2022-04-07
    soldstatus $129,000
30. 1994-09-23
    soldstatus $22,000
31. 1981-09-01
    soldstatus $37,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,990 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,990 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,990
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − HOA: −$4,524
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$3,433
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$824
• After-tax cash flow: $-500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,689
• Household income: $86,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 12% Two or more races 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.48%
• Current HPI: 274.157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.41%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+282.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-25 Rental Removed $1,375 BUILDIUM
• 2025-03-28 Listed for Rent $1,375 BUILDIUM
• 2025-03-28 Rental Removed $1,375 STELLARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed for Rent $1,375 STELLARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Rental Removed $1,375 BUILDIUM
• 2025-03-05 Listed for Rent $1,375 BUILDIUM
• 2025-03-05 Rental Removed $1,375 STELLARMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed for Rent $1,375 STELLARMLS
• 2025-01-05 Listed $158,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1981-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,990 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.