407 Clay St · Eagle Lake, TX 77434

$19,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1940 3,920 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity in the heart of Eagle Lake! Priced at lot value, this property is the perfect chance for savvy investors, rehabbers, or builders looking for their next project. Tear it down and start fresh, or bring your vision and turn this fixer-upper into something new. Motivated seller.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 1-story (single level); Built in 1940
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Seller disclosure available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $19k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $585 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($975 rent vs $19k).
• Cap rate 43.3% vs local median 3.7% in Eagle Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#913 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Rice CISD (rural): math 34% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #574 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Lake Int (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 180 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 68% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29 units permitted in Colorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $378 of equity ($131 loan paydown + $247 appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 132.05%
• DSCR: 6.88
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,256
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Clay St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,064 (0%)	0mo	$19,000	$18	100
504 N Lake Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (+9%)	1mo	$190,000	$164	64
615 Shirley St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (-1%)	8mo	$65,000	$62	54
901 E Prairie Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,107 (+4%)	19mo	$180,000	$163	50
1106 E State St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,075 (+1%)	16mo	$139,000	$129	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.14×
• Total profit: $37,969
• Equity at exit: $6,785

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.01×
• Total profit: $85,185
• Equity at exit: $9,253

Cash invested: $5,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77434

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$100
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $234

Max offer price $19,000

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,750
• Closing costs: $570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Hunters Ln Unit 217 Eagle Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	936	$975	$1.04	24d	1	0.44mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $19,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $928 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,064
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$95
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$553
• Taxable income: $7,188
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,725
• After-tax cash flow: $5,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rice CISD
• NCES district ID: 4836970
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,704
• Composite: 27.72/100
• National rank: #6907
• State rank: #574 of 826 in TX

Livability — Eagle Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #913
• US rank: #16344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eagle Lake, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,037

Population outlook (Colorado County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,932 people
• By 2030: 20,803 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 20,518 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 20,325 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 20,086 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 18,228 · -12.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 58% White 22% Black 19% Two or more races 16% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Colorado

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.2) · D 21.1% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -39.4pp · 2024: -57.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.2 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+51.2 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+39.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.30%
• Current HPI: 179.6872
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $19,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $928 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.