2208 Old Gurley Pike · New Hope, AL 35670

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1956 0.60 ac lot $188/sqft · 48% above area Est $132k · 48% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom 1 bath home needs work to become someones forever home

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 27 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($32/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in New Hope — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#91 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 13348% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 24% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,775 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,902
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 47.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
374 New Hope Cedar Point Rd	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,058 (+2%)	18mo	$73,000	$69	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $68,394
• Equity at exit: $135,375

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $198,443
• Equity at exit: $257,374

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35670

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,458 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,454

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $58	+0% $3	+5% $-53	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-55	+0% $3	+5% $60	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $52	base $3	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2208 Old Gurley Pike New Hope, AL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,450	$1.39	45d	1	0.02mi
110 Jonboy Ave New Hope, AL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,526	$1.14	15d	1	1.37mi
118 Jonboy Ave New Hope, AL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,526	$1.14	15d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-11
   listed $195,000 Active 217-char remark
8. 2026-04-27
   listed $1,450
9. 2026-04-27
   historical $1,450
10. 2026-04-10
    listed $1,450
11. 2023-12-29
    soldstatus $173,500
12. 2023-09-15
    soldstatus $72,000 Sold 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 1 bath home needs work to become someones forever home

13. 2023-08-04
    status Pending 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 1 bath home needs work to become someones forever home

14. 2023-07-07
    price $84,900 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 1 bath home needs work to become someones forever home

15. 2023-06-07
    listed $89,900 Active 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    This 3 bedroom 1 bath home needs work to become someones forever home

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$258/yr (+$22/mo · 47.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,493
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,418
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$820
• After-tax cash flow: $852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 0102220
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,058
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4483
• State rank: #19 of 129 in AL

Livability — New Hope

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #11179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Hope, AL
• City population: 4,908
• Population (ZIP): 7,116

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,086 people
• By 2030: 409,788 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 440,557 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 460,990 · +17.6%
• By 2075: 502,872 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 513,623 · +31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 44.7% · R 53.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+8.0 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.02%
• Current HPI: 244.71
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-98.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed for Rent $1,450 VMLS
• 2026-04-27 Rental Removed $1,450 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-04-10 Listed for Rent $1,450 TENANTTURNER2
• 2023-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $173,500 Public Records
• 2023-09-15 Sold (MLS) $72,000 VMLS
• 2023-08-04 Pending — VMLS
• 2023-07-07 Price Changed $84,900 VMLS
• 2023-06-07 Listed $89,900 VMLS

Property tax history

+16.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $541 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.