3581 Sky Pl · Seguin, TX 78155

$187,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $127/sqft · 14% below area Est $219k · 14% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $188k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $181,284 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.07%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,499
• List price: $187,999
• Delta: -14.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3581 Sky Pl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	1mo	$187,999	$127	99
3560 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-1%)	2mo	$200,999	$136	95
3581 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	4mo	$197,999	$133	94
3569 Canyon Rdg	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	4mo	$187,999	$127	94
728 Canyon Vw	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	4mo	$193,999	$131	90
728 Canyon Run	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	6mo	$187,999	$127	86
3572 Canyon Rdg	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	1mo	$189,999	$113	70
3580 Canyon Rdg	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	2mo	$210,999	$126	70
3556 Canyon Rdg	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	1mo	$200,999	$120	70
3565 Canyon Rdg	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	3mo	$203,999	$122	68
3549 Canyon Rdg	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	3mo	$200,999	$120	67
724 Canyon Vw	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	4mo	$204,999	$122	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-26,354
• Equity at exit: $28,031

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,257
• Equity at exit: $16,255

Cash invested: $52,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$235 /mo · $2,820/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,698

Max offer price $187,999

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $156	+0% $91	+5% $26	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-52	-5% $19	+0% $91	+5% $163	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $139	base $91	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,000
• Closing costs: $5,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3572 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$1,700	$1.01	2d	1	0.05mi
3209 Ridge Pl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,700	$1.25	44d	1	0.44mi
1015 Reiley Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,495	$1.52	2d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-08
   price $187,999 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-05-05
   price $207,999 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-30
   price $187,999 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-29
   price $193,999 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-04-28
   price $195,999 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-04-22
   price $199,999 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-04-06
   listed $201,999 New 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,531
• − Property taxes: −$2,820
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,740
• − Management: −$1,740
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,469
• Taxable loss: −$1,990
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$478
• After-tax cash flow: $1,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-level home is move-in ready with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It offers a great opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the current market trends.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and market value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and market value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $187,999 LERA
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $207,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $187,999 LERA
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $193,999 LERA
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $195,999 LERA
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $199,999 LERA
• 2026-04-06 Listed $201,999 LERA