11511 Dell Hollow Dr · Houston, TX 77066

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,732 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1984 6,899 sqft lot Est $230k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your perfect renovation project! Built in 1984, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 1,732 sq ft of living space and sits on a roomy 0.15-acre lot. The home is in need of significant updating and repairs, presenting a strong opportunity for renovation or investment. It features a functional layout with generous square footage, providing a solid foundation for customization. Located in an established neighborhood just minutes from the Sam Houston Tollway, the property offers convenient access to major thoroughfares, shopping, and dining. If you're looking to restore and add value in a well-located North Houston area, this is the one for you! Sold as-is and priced accordingly.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Functional layout
• Significant updating

Tags

• SIGNIFICANT UPDATING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1984; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and other/unknown construction materials; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor); Primary bedroom on the first floor, approximately 15 x 14; Second bedroom on the first floor, approximately 10 x 9; Third bedroom on the first floor, approximately 9 x 9; Three total rooms designated as bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Klein Forest H S (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,481 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 37% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Klein ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.27%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,356
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11511 Dell Hollow Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (0%)	0mo	$129,000	$74	95
5530 Oak Falls Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (-4%)	8mo	$240,000	$145	75
11423 Sunny Creek Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (-4%)	10mo	$210,000	$127	72
11426 Devencrest Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,767 (+2%)	17mo	$235,000	$133	67
4908 Landward Ln	0.38mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,701 (-2%)	8mo	$199,999	$118	65
5334 Bourgeois Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,693 (-2%)	11mo	$224,999	$133	56
5010 Kale Ct	0.46mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,609 (-7%)	7mo	$199,900	$124	54
10910 Alseth Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,594 (-8%)	11mo	$179,950	$113	45
6611 Castle Lane Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,895 (+9%)	4mo	$248,000	$131	41
4907 Brownfields Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,562 (-10%)	9mo	$235,000	$150	40
10903 Courtney Bend Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,577 (-9%)	17mo	$210,000	$133	38
7331 Northleaf Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (-13%)	20mo	$279,000	$185	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.02% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,082
• Equity at exit: $31,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $12,711
• Equity at exit: $32,449

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77066

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,741 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$396 /mo · $4,751/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,426

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $322	-5% $285	+0% $249	+5% $212	+10% $176
Rent	-10% $111	-5% $180	+0% $249	+5% $318	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $282	base $249	+0.5pp $215	+1.0pp $181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11430 Hackmatack Way Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	45d	1	0.23mi
5113 Caldera Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1847	$1,811	$0.98	0d	1	0.35mi
4918 Landward Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1989	$1,700	$0.85	45d	1	0.38mi
5163 Klein Orchard Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,149	$1.39	45d	1	0.97mi
11008 Panicum Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,488	$1.20	45d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $129,000 Active
2. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,751 · $396/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,751 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$4,751
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,671
• − Management: −$1,671
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $1,170
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$281
• After-tax cash flow: $2,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,311
• Household income: $87,138
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 815.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% Black 23% Two or more races 21% Asian 15% White 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 36% Vietnamese 8% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Current HPI: 261.1086
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,751 · -6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.