121 Navajo Ln · Gold Key Lake, PA 18458

$85,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 583 sqft · Manufactured · 42 Days on market

Built 1991 Fair condition 4,792 sqft lot $146/sqft · 105% above area $150/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the Poconos: Your Turn-key Retreat in Trails End! Discover the perfect blend of comfort and woodland charm in this beautifully maintained fully furnished and equipped ''Estate'' model, nestled within the gated community of Trails End. Offering a spacious layout and impressive outdoor amenities, this vacation home is ready for you to start making memories. Step into this sun-drenched, all-seasons room where a wall of windows and warm wood accents create the perfect light-filled relaxing space for all. Enter the main living space to an open kitchen, dinette and living room which offers an accordion style door to create a private 2nd sleeping area. Secluded, cozy bedroom allows priv

Key facts

• Gated community
• Outdoor amenities
• All-seasons room

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OUTDOOR AMENITIES
• ALL-SEASONS ROOM
• WALL OF WINDOWS
• RECREATIONAL AREA
• OLYMPIC SIZE POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community outdoor in-ground pool; Located in the Trails End subdivision
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fees (includes electricity, sewer, water and trash); Community amenities: pool, clubhouse, fitness center, playground, basketball court, game room, meeting/party room, restaurant, fishing; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Gravel parking area; Off-street parking
• Security: Gated community with 24-hour security
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home; One level; Used for recreational/vacation purposes; Located in a gated community
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fire pit; Gas grill; Front porch; Enclosed porch; Shed on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Ceiling fans; Wall-mounted air conditioning units
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Open floor plan; Ceiling fans; Window coverings, blinds and other window treatments; Mirrored closet doors; Sliding doors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 5.9% in Gold Key Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.33%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,482
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 104.91%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Shohola Pkwy N	0.32mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (+3%)	17mo	$35,000	$58	61
1944 Cardinal Ln Lot 1944	0.29mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (+3%)	21mo	$38,000	$63	59
973 Beaver Ln	0.36mi	2/1.0 (+1)	500 (-14%)	14mo	$26,000	$52	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $65,770
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.51×
• Total profit: $178,676
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $933

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $85,000 Active 1011-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,266
• − Management: −$1,266
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,554
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$613
• After-tax cash flow: $3,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in fair condition with cosmetic repairs needed. It has a good layout and is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears faded in some areas.
• Minor Curtains — Curtains appear worn in some areas.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior and interior — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace worn curtains — Fresh curtains would improve the home's appearance and comfort.
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained yard would enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures comfort and energy efficiency, which is important for both resale and rental value.
• Both Replace worn flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and comfort, making it more attractive to buyers/tenants.
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — Fresh, updated cabinets would improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers/tenants.
• Both Replace worn bathroom cabinets — Fresh, updated cabinets would improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears faded in some areas.	Minor	$500–3,000
Curtains · Curtains appear worn in some areas.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior and interior — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace worn curtains — Fresh curtains would improve the home's appearance and comfort. ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained yard would enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures comfort and energy efficiency, which is important for both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace worn flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and comfort, making it more attractive to buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Replace worn kitchen cabinets — Fresh, updated cabinets would improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Replace worn bathroom cabinets — Fresh, updated cabinets would improve the home's appearance and functionality, making it more attractive to buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gold Key Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #789
• US rank: #7969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $85,000 PWMLS