209 E Valley Dr · Fort Valley, GA 31030

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1972 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Good fixer upper

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $691 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 27.0% vs local median 5.5% in Fort Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#220 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Peach County (rural): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #141 of 174 in GA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kay Road Elementary (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #673 of 1,228 statewide, top 55%, 529 students, 82% FRL); Fort Valley Middle School (math 11% / reading 19%, grade F, #397 of 470 statewide, top 85%, 481 students, 82% FRL); Peach County High School (math 3% / reading 22%, grade F, #334 of 424 statewide, top 79%, 1,107 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 65% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 149 units permitted in Peach County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Peach County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.09%
• DSCR: 4.30
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,712
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Plum St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,290 (+1%)	2mo	$70,000	$54	78
325 Peach Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+5%)	8mo	$199,900	$150	74
327 Peach Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+5%)	10mo	$199,900	$150	72
327 Peach Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+5%)	10mo	$199,900	$150	72
5241 341 Hwy	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-4%)	23mo	$180,000	$148	68
106 Peachtree Ext	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-2%)	21mo	$182,000	$146	68
313 Vienna St	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,152 (-9%)	10mo	$120,000	$104	60
208 E Love St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,124 (-12%)	22mo	$75,500	$67	53
217 Chestnut St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,184 (-7%)	22mo	$46,000	$39	39
305 Chestnut St	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (-13%)	3mo	$120,500	$109	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $37,587
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.00×
• Total profit: $89,553
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31030

• Home prices YoY: -14.7%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $784/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $691

Break-even live

Break-even rent $369

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $714	-5% $703	+0% $691	+5% $680	+10% $669
Rent	-10% $593	-5% $642	+0% $691	+5% $741	+10% $790
Rate	-1.0pp $712	-0.5pp $702	base $691	+0.5pp $681	+1.0pp $671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
412 Vienna Cir Fort Valley, GA	4.0	2.0	1501	$1,400	$0.93	15d	1	0.20mi
313 Vienna St Fort Valley, GA	3.0	2.0	1158	$1,100	$0.95	15d	1	0.30mi
305 Chestnut St Fort Valley, GA	4.0	1.5	1104	$1,400	$1.27	22d	1	0.71mi
529 Railroad St Unit 4B Fort Valley, GA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,095	$1.00	22d	1	0.85mi
529 Railroad St Fort Valley, GA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,095	$1.00	45d	1	0.85mi
413 Anderson Ave Unit D3 Fort Valley, GA	3.0	2.0	950	$900	$0.95	15d	1	0.87mi
417 Anderson Ave Fort Valley, GA	3.0	2.0	950	$925	$0.97	15d	1	0.89mi
103 Fagan Cir Fort Valley, GA	4.0	2.0	1010	$1,550	$1.53	15d	1	1.26mi
103 Ronald Pride Blvd Fort Valley, GA	3.0	2.0	960	$1,300	$1.35	22d	1	1.27mi
401 Carver Dr Fort Valley, GA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	15d	1	1.28mi
714 Green St Fort Valley, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,449	$1.49	15d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-12-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-08
   listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $784 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $784 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$784
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $8,157
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,958
• After-tax cash flow: $6,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peach County
• NCES district ID: 1304050
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,348
• Composite: 17.89/100
• National rank: #9000
• State rank: #141 of 174 in GA

Livability — Fort Valley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #12957

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Valley, GA
• City population: 17,987
• Population (ZIP): 17,987

Population outlook (Peach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,481 people
• By 2030: 25,723 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 23,812 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 21,724 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 17,513 · -33.9%
• By 2100: 14,235 · -46.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Peach

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 46.8% · R 52.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.8pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+3.0 2012: D+7.5 2008: D+6.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.82%
• Current HPI: 202.0025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-11 Pending — CGMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $40,000 CGMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $784 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.