821 Mulberry Ln · Brazoria, TX 77422

$199,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,273 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1964 9,600 sqft lot Est $298k · 33% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home did not flood in Harvey , 2017. Freshly remodeled 4 Bedroom spacious traditional home. New Interior and Exterior Paint, Granite countertops in Kitchen, New Stainless Appliances, New tile flooring, New Carpet, Remodeled downstairs bathroom, New Plumbing fixtures, New Light fixtures, 2 Units – Central HVAC, fenced yard and much more. Setup your showings today.

Key facts

• 9,600 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1964; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor (approx. 12x12)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12x15); Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (two approx. 12x12 and two approx. 10x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; One fireplace; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.1% in Brazoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,001 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Columbia El (math 47% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 709 students, 60% FRL); West Brazos J H (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 676 students, 65% FRL); Columbia H S (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 889 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,743 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.12%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,763
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
810 Mulberry Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,350 (+3%)	10mo	$259,000	$110	76
232 Magnolia St	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,253 (-1%)	2mo	$295,000	$131	73
210 Avenue G	0.05mi	4/2.0	2,060 (-9%)	15mo	$290,000	$141	66
249 Camellia Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,992 (-12%)	14mo	$260,000	$131	41
213 Avenue B	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (-14%)	19mo	$314,900	$161	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $93,829
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $288,578
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77422

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$464 /mo · $5,572/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,020

Max offer price $157,743

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-125	-5% $-182	+0% $-239	+5% $-295	+10% $-352
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-307	+0% $-239	+5% $-171	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-138	-0.5pp $-188	base $-239	+0.5pp $-290	+1.0pp $-343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 250-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,572 · $464/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,572 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,572
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$6,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,504
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brazoria

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1001
• US rank: #17755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brazoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,548

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.41%
• Current HPI: 296.0632
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+47.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2019-05-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-04-02 Price Changed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-22 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-11 Price Changed $212,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-05 Price Changed $214,000 HARMLS
• 2019-02-13 Price Changed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2019-02-01 Price Changed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2019-01-24 Price Changed $224,000 HARMLS
• 2018-12-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-08-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-08-23 Price Changed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-21 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-10 Price Changed $172,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-03 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2018-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-18 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2009-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-11-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-10-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-09-21 Listed $134,000 HARMLS
• 2009-08-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-05-13 Listed $136,000 HARMLS
• 2004-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,572 · -6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.