2854 Farzi Cir · Lake of the Woods, VA 22508

$339,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,290 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2019 Est $320k · 6% over $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

METICULOUSLY maintained END-unit townhome, offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, set on a PRIVATE, oversized lot BACKING to TREES. Upper level features SPACIOUS owner’s suite with a PRIVATE full bath, plus additional 2 bedrooms and full bath. The main level features a BRIGHT WHITE Kitchen that opens seamlessly to the dining and family rooms, creating an ideal open-concept layout. HIGHLIGHT REEL continues, ENJOY a BEAUTIFULLY designed screened-in deck with a ceiling fan and wood-accented ceiling—perfect for RELAXING or ENTERTAINING. Ideally located near everyday conveniences, including Walmart and Starbucks, offering easy access to shopping & dining. Favorite this home and s

Key facts

• Bright white kitchen
• Backing to trees
• Screened in deck

Tags

• PRIVATE OVERSIZED LOT
• BACKING TO TREES
• BRIGHT WHITE KITCHEN
• SCREENED IN DECK
• WOOD ACCENTED CEILING
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee $44 monthly; HOA covers common area maintenance; Community has tot lots/playground

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Permanent foundation; Built year source: Assessor
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the upper level; One half bathroom on the main level; Total: two full, one half
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Daylight, full basement; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#341 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 196 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $252,614 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.61%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,920
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2868 Farzi Cir	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,290 (0%)	1mo	$320,000	$248	98
2862 Farzi Cir	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,290 (0%)	8mo	$315,000	$244	92
2884 Farzi Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,290 (0%)	10mo	$300,000	$233	90
2840 Farzi Cir	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,290 (0%)	14mo	$325,000	$252	87
35166 Sara Ct	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,290 (0%)	10mo	$330,000	$256	84
35252 Sara Ct	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,200 (-7%)	3mo	$315,000	$263	81
35205 Sara Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,290 (0%)	23mo	$315,000	$244	77
35112 Somerset Ridge Rd	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,294 (+0%)	23mo	$310,000	$240	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-63,322
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-66,034
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22508

• Home prices YoY: -5.0%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,526 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,865/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,688

Max offer price $317,313

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $-32	+0% $-128	+5% $-224	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-327	-5% $-228	+0% $-128	+5% $-28	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $43	-0.5pp $-41	base $-128	+0.5pp $-216	+1.0pp $-306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35178 Sara Ct Locust Grove, VA	3.0	3.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	44d	1	0.12mi
2736 Bears Den Dr Locust Grove, VA	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,299	$1.34	20d	1	1.08mi
2618 Grey Wolf Ln Locust Grove, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,500	$1.56	2d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $339,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,865 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,787 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$922/yr (+$77/mo · 49.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$1,865
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,425
• − Management: −$2,425
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$7,557
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,814
• After-tax cash flow: $279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $61,086
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #2147
• State rank: #71 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake of the Woods

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #13456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 15,557
• Household income: $111,357
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,758 people
• By 2030: 40,411 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 43,477 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 45,856 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 51,067 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 51,387 · +32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.2% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+14.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.88%
• Current HPI: 401.2932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $339,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+37.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,865 · +27.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.