7357 Sanborn Ln · Florin, CA 95823

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1990 $106/sqft · 54% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Refined living in this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home in the coveted Elk Grove School District. With 1,128 sq ft, it features a modern kitchen with a stunning granite island! Situated close to premier shopping, dining, and efficient transportation!

Key facts

• Updated mobile home
• Granite island
• Close to dining

Tags

• UPDATED MOBILE HOME
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE ISLAND
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• EFFICIENT TRANSPORTATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $841 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 3.6% in Florin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#673 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 181 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.04%
• DSCR: 2.34
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,000
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 53.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7312 Bold Ln	0.05mi	2/1.0	1,140 (+1%)	17mo	$55,000	$48	78
7397 Dumont	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-2%)	21mo	$85,000	$77	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $28,389
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $71,533
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95823

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $245/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $841

Break-even live

Break-even rent $886

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7283 Florin Mall Dr #14 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	902	$1,675	$1.86	44d	1	0.25mi
7252 Florin Mall Dr Unit 7252 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,725	$1.92	44d	1	0.35mi
6901 Florin Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	752	$1,648	$2.19	8d	4	0.64mi
6921 Lewiston Way Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	569	$1,495	$2.63	3d	5	0.72mi
5545 Sky Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	716	$1,630	$2.28	18d	7	0.92mi
6465 Village Center Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	629	$1,670	$2.65	3d	9	0.93mi
6824 Mangosteen Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,245	$1.60	8d	1	0.95mi
7140 Chris Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1248	$2,300	$1.84	44d	1	0.97mi
5943 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$2,495	$1.91	15d	1	0.98mi
7614 Par Pkwy Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,750	$2.06	44d	1	1.02mi
7236 East Pkwy Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	776	$1,645	$2.12	3d	1	1.09mi
4623 Goya Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,400	$1.93	44d	1	1.09mi
7238 East Pkwy Apt B5 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,645	$1.61	8d	1	1.09mi
7351 Gigi Pl Unit 7353 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,775	$1.77	24d	1	1.14mi
5500 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	856	$1,603	$1.87	8d	1	1.16mi
7639 Clover Woods Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,895	$1.84	44d	1	1.18mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	801	$1,891	$2.36	20d	1	1.22mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	801	$1,731	$2.16	18d	1	1.22mi
7826 Center Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	737	$1,795	$2.43	44d	1	1.23mi
6633 Valley Hi Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	809	$1,889	$2.33	4d	1	1.26mi
6475 Stockton Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	988	$2,600	$2.63	20d	1	1.27mi
7605 Franklin Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	824	$1,645	$2.00	3d	1	1.28mi
6470 Stockton Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	856	$1,845	$2.16	44d	2	1.28mi
4407 Bouts Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	44d	1	1.32mi
4913 Sky Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	44d	1	1.33mi
6519 Prentiss Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1029	$2,300	$2.24	12d	1	1.34mi
4400 Shining Star Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1225	$2,254	$1.84	44d	1	1.34mi
7408 Franklin Blvd #2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	22d	1	1.35mi
4417 A Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,200	$1.53	44d	1	1.36mi
7575 Power Inn Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	729	$1,950	$2.67	2d	5	1.37mi
7051 Bowling Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	716	$1,445	$2.02	3d	5	1.38mi
74 La Fresa Ct #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,950	$2.32	44d	1	1.42mi
7733 Robinette Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,150	$1.92	44d	1	1.43mi
6611 50th St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	873	$1,950	$2.23	8d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $245 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$667/yr (+$56/mo · 272.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$245
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $8,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,064
• After-tax cash flow: $8,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Florin

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #20705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florin, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 60,532
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 83,607
• Household income: $66,895
• Rent vs Own: 52.4% rent · 47.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4034.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Asian 25% Black 17% Two or more races 16% White 11% Pacific Islander 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Other Indo-European 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -331.02%
• Current HPI: 377.4278
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $245 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.